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And I'm sure the money will be so useful it if you win your bet in the end on climate collapse by 2030.
this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2025
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A Boring Dystopia
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An argument I've heard for allowing this is, at least it means the public will have more reliable advance information, since insiders are incentivized to bet on what they know will happen in order to take everyone else's money, which effectively leaks the info and happens before that information gets into the news.
Well depends on the definition of public.. When Peter Thiel invests heavily in a platform like polymarket all it does is tell him if his political power is showing. Everything else is breadcrumbs we are allowed to see....
Much like with similar markets, robinhood comes to mind, I suspect this is of similar cloth (hugely profitable to the insiders, sometimes profitable to the outsiders and the public ""findings"" get massaged by their marketing department.
I'm not sure what you mean, in this case the definition of public would be anyone who can see the state of the market (everyone), and so can see when insider trading visibly moves the price. The idea being that doing the insider trading unavoidably leaks the information in this way, they can't hide it unless they can manage to actually prevent all insiders from substantially trading on their inside knowledge.
Yeah my comment is meandering a bit. Maybe a more succinct way would be to say: this so called market is a private firm and it's in their own interest to not divulge the whole picture.
You're absolutely right about complex systems always leaking info through unintended sidechannels, but I would argue that is information not available to everyone on the "market" at the same time, thus skewing the market (and again benefitting the owners of the market more than anyone).
Could you give an example? Do you mean they will fail to report or falsify the real prices, or something else? I'll admit I like the idea of more decentralized betting markets (wish Augur had gotten big instead of platforms like Polymarket), but something that egregious seems like it would be tough to get away with without people noticing.