NFL

The third quarter is right around his season rating of 93.8. The previous cool-off continues, but it’s still respectable.

The fourth quarter goes to the hell in a hand basket though. What is happening?

Source

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https://preview.redd.it/h3jdp82qys1c1.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a018ed99a2bf55cba74524209eafb9f1f89dce9

The most efficient rushing team in the league, the Baltimore Ravens, still only averages -0.03 EPA per rush play. Averaging across the whole league, the average rushing play is -0.09 EPA and the average dropback play is 0.06 EPA.

Taken at face value, teams should abandon the run and just pass. This of course would be too simplistic as one could argue that the threat of a run helps unlocking the passing game and improves the EPA.

However, another way to look at this is perhaps EPA is just a flawed metric and is either too simplistic or is missing a key nuance in its modelling. Perhaps there's a flat EPA adjustment we need to apply to all plays that would make rushing EPAs positive? Perhaps too much weight is given to the explosive pass? Perhaps we need to adjust the era data from when teams rarely played two high safeties to counter today's passing league?

Nevertheless, I wonder if more and more OCs in the league are using EPA and other advanced analytics and coming to the conclusion you might when looking at this data that passing is far superior to running and ending up with too many teams trying to pass it on too many downs, abandoning the run and putting too much pressure on their average QB?

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Looking at the rest of the current top teams in the NFL and their records against teams that currently hold a winning record:

• Eagles (9-1) are 4-0

• Ravens (8-3) are 4-2

• Chiefs (7-3) are 3-2

• 49ers (7-3) are 3-2

• Jaguars (7-3) are 1-3

• Cowboys (7-3) are 0-2

• Dolphins (7-3) are 0-3

Part of the Lions's low record against winning teams is due to a weaker NFC North this season (although Vikings currently hold a winning record and Lions have yet to play them). But it still stands that the Lions have had a relatively weaker schedule this year, and have not defeated a team with a current winning record since Week 1.

This stands to change with upcoming games against the Vikings (6-5) and Cowboys (7-3), as well as possibly the Broncos and Saints (5-5) depending on how their records turn out.

I'll start. A turnover should be a point for the defense. Your team is winning by one point, and they turn the ball over? Now the game is tied.

Here's one that bugs the hell out of me. Get rid of the taunting penalty!

I'll start. A turnover should be a point for the defense. Your team is winning by one point, and they turn the ball over? Now the game is tied.

Here's one that bugs the hell out of me. Get rid of the taunting penalty!

Source: https://stathead.com/tiny/oeQbG

To paint a full picture, the Chiefs are also tied for 3rd in the NFL in 1st-half touchdowns scored this season:

Source: https://stathead.com/tiny/BZfmA

https://twitter.com/JL_Chapman/status/1726982892944003129

https://twitter.com/JL_Chapman/status/1726982892944003129

This Friday features the first Black Friday game between the Dolphins and the Jets. It got me wondering if the NFL has ever played a game on a Friday before?

This Friday features the first Black Friday game between the Dolphins and the Jets. It got me wondering if the NFL has ever played a game on a Friday before?

If so, could the Steelers just hire Joe Barry as their new OC and the Packers could bring in Matt Canada as their new DC?

If so, could the Steelers just hire Joe Barry as their new OC and the Packers could bring in Matt Canada as their new DC?

Welcome to week 11 of the official r/NFL Power Rankings! With a 157 rating over the last two games, Purdy and seems to have taken the slump personally but how far will it take the niners? Mahomes is playing on All-Madden without adjusting sliders, how many ridiculous drops can he endure before rage-quitting? With another strong win, has Sean Payton justified his bucket hat ban? Tim Boyle will solve all of Saleh's problems, right? Discuss! 30/32 Reporting

1. | | Eagles | -- | 9-1 | “We suck,” “we look so bad,” “what is happening,” “are we fucked?”, “…never in doubt.” Hanging on by the skin of their beaks, the Eagles remain in sole possession of the NFL’s best record. The offense, despite some head-scratching play calls (looking at you, bubble screens and coward’s draws), did just enough against a top defense that dominated the line of scrimmage, a first for the Eagles in a long time. The defense made some key plays down the stretch, like securing an INT, forcing a fumble, and placing a witch’s hex on MVS’s hands. This is the 2023 Philadelphia Eagles experience: winning games is all that matters, much to the chagrin of aesthetically pleasing football. At 9-1, the Eagles have oddly given Philly fans much to complain about, but this team does share one thing in common with the dominant 2022 birds: lots of wins, not a lot of losses. Next up, another AFC powerhouse underperforming relative to their potential in the Bills.
2. | | Ravens | +1 | 8-3 | A week after the Ravens had multiple opportunities to close the door on Cleveland and couldn’t do it, they faced an essential must win at home for keeping pace in the AFC North race with a primetime matchup against Cincinnati. They did exactly that; despite Mark Andrews going down early in the first quarter, Lamar and the offense remained surgical exceeding 400 yards and 34 points while pushing the Ravens to 8-3. Unfortunately it's becoming exceedingly rare to see Burrow vs Lamar for a full 60 minute tilt. Fans leaguewide were hyped for what should've been a playoff atmosphere but was yet another Thursday night letdown featuring far too many injuries. Up next is a trip out west against what appears to be a floundering Chargers team. Make no mistake though, the Chargers' talent level far exceeds their 4 wins having only lost a single game this season by more than a field goal. If the Ravens can take care of business in LA they'll get a much needed week 13 bye to help a slew of All Pros(Marlon Humphrey, Ronnie Stanley, Marcus Williams) heal up and make our healthiest December push in years.
3. | | Chiefs | -1 | 7-3 | I was going to write a blurb this week but I dropped the ball. The weeks after a Chiefs' loss always drive me nuts because the jackals come out of the woodworks with hot takes. Do the Chiefs have the worst WRs in the NFL? Probably. Is it an issue that they haven’t scored in the 2nd half in 3 games? Definitely. Is this still one of the best teams in the NFL with a great chance of winning the 1 seed and grinding their way into playoff wins? Also yes. Stay healthy and don’t get flustered and we’ll see what happens in January.
4. | | Lions | -- | 8-2 | Holy shit Detroit had no business winning that game, and yet here we are, with the Brand New Lions at 8-2, their best record to start a season in the Super Bowl era. While Goff had a largely abysmal outing, he cleaned it up when it counted, going 10-12 for 115 yards and a TD on the final two drives to complete a 12 point comeback in under 4 minutes. Aidan Hutchinson had his second strip-sack game-ender of the year, having done the same thing to Desmond Ridder in week 3. Overall, this was a gritty, come-from-behind win in a divisional game that could have easily been a loss, and the resilience to get a win is stunning, given this club’s historical track record. This week, Lions welcome GB to Detroit for the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday, looking to win their first turkey game since 2016.
5. | | 49ers | -- | 7-3 | Brock Purdy became only the 3rd 49ers QB to ever post a perfect passer rating in a game, en route to a 27-14 win over the Buccaneers. On the other side of the ball, losing Hufanga for the season is a big loss for a defensive unit that has been struggling against the pass. Stepping into the role is the rookie Ji'Ayir Brown, 3rd round pick out of Penn State. Coming in after the Hufanga injury, he initially struggled but seemed to gain his footing and effectively ended the game with his interception in the red zone. His first start will come in Seattle on Thanksgiving day.
6. | | Cowboys | -- | 7-3 | This platform has one job this week: advocacy for your defensive player of the year: Daron Bland. This dude is redonk. First of all, before Thanksgiving, he has tied the NFL record for pick sixes. He still has 41% of the season left, and the record is tied. Now, on its own, in a vacuum, that is impressive. For added perspective, he has as many TD catches as Nuk Hopkins, as Davante Adams, as Calvin Ridley, as the entire Falcons WR room. Now, everyone knows that there is more to QB play than just picks. So, let's look at other numbers. When targeted, he has an EPA of -47.6. His PFF grade is 91.1. He is allowing a passer rating of 36.5, which is three points lower than just chucking it into the dirt every time. And this is all as a second year player who was bounced outside from the slot after an injury to Trevon Diggs.
7. | | Dolphins | -- | 7-3 | It's still hard to believe we only had to give up a 3rd round pick and Hunter Long in order to add Jalen Ramsey to this team. He has looked every bit as good as he was with the Jaguars, let alone with the Rams. In 3 games he has 3 interceptions, with one them clinching the game late in the 4th quarter in a 20-13 win against the Raiders. He was also the biggest reason why we've shut out our opponent in the second half for two straight games. Our next game will be a tough Black Friday game where we'll travel to Metlife to face an extremely tough Jets defense. Hopefully we'll have De'Von Achane for this game as he reinjured his knee on Sunday, returned to the sideline, but was held out just as a precaution.
8. | | Browns | -- | 7-3 | What is even happening right now?
9. | | Jaguars | -- | 7-3 | In his best Jekyll/Hyde impression, TLaw posted his worst performance as a passer only a week removed from one in his top 5. A microcosm of the Jaguars as a whole as even in week 11 they're trying to find themselves to solidify who or what they are as a team. If the smothering performance this week is to be believed, the Jaguars are looking to turn the corner like they did last season... only this time with several more wins as a head start. Next week's rematch of a Texans team that flattened them earlier in the season will provide a true litmus test for who the Jags are now. Are they the sad kittens who got handled by some gold diggers? Or are they an apex predator, salivating for a ribeye? 🥩
10. | | Bills | +3 | 6-5 | This is the offense BillsMafia has been waiting to see, plus it was against a Jets D that gave us fits in the first matchup. Buffalo’s entering a brutal stretch right now, so this was a must-win. Next on the docket? The defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. This is likely the toughest matchup of the season for the Bills, and it doesn’t get any easier after the bye. If this team is gonna make the playoffs, they need to show up like they did against the Jets every week —and they won’t have the luxury of playing Zach Wilson.
11. | | Texans | +1 | 6-4 | As fun as this season has been for the Texans, there was always going to be an inevitable back to Earth game at some point for CJ Stroud. That came on Sunday as he was picked 3 times. The good news is that even in his first “rookie game” he still threw for 336 yards and the Texans came out with the W. In a reversal from previous weeks, the defense came to the rescue at the end of the game stopping Kyler Murray on 4th down in a potential game winning drive. Will Anderson got his 3rd sack of the season and Derek Stingley had himself a takeaway as well. My main concern moving forward, however, has been the number of points being left on the field by the offense in recent games. Multiple fumbles, red zone interceptions, and fourth down stops have turned what probably should’ve been two blowouts into nail biters. With a showdown against the Jags for the top spot in the AFCS next week, the Texans will need to be able to finish drives.
12. | | Seahawks | -1 | 6-4 | So you see, that's where the trouble began. That smile. That damned smile. The Rams continue to be a massive thorn in Seattle's side. You can try and put the blame on a multitude of things-- the zebras and their affinity for seeing yellow pieces cloth soar through the air, Geno Smith and Ken Walker both getting injured, etc. But at the end of the day, the Seahawks controlled the game all afternoon and even put themselves in a position to win the game in the end. It just didn't work out. Geno Smith said his radio malfunctioned at the end, leading to calling the quickest play he could (an inside run), essentially guaranteeing it would be the last offensive play for the Seahawks and sending Jason Myers to attempt a 55 yarder. He had already nailed 52 and 54 yard kicks, but the 55 yard attempt wasn't even close. The Rams deserve credit, as they have now beaten us twice this season without Cooper Kupp (essentially) both games. They seem to have our number. Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen, and DK Metcalf continue to be bright, bright spots for this team. Seattle plays the archnemesis 49ers on Turkey day, and boy will Lumen be loud.
13. | | Steelers | +1 | 6-4 | Two great defenses. They get it done in different ways. Cleveland are the more traditional defense who will shut an opponent down. The stat sheet bears that out, and it's what they did to Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Steelers are more of a playmaking defense. While they did make some good plays, they really needed some playmaking from the offense, but the Browns just weren't having it. Underrated matchup: Myles Garrett vs TJ Watt. Myles was big when it counted, TJ was carrying the defense along with Elandon Roberts, who really stepped up. The Steelers have a revolving door with the IR and it's going to be iffy moving forward due to injuries, but it was at least promising to see the team put up a good fight without being close to full strength. Amazingly, Kenny Pickett was the less worse QB in the duel vs Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Combined, they had as many yards as Aidan O'Connell did for the Raiders, which was 271. Jaylen Warren was the only bright spot on offense. Aside from one huge run play by him, Cleveland was very much in control on defense. A final observation: It was hard to see former Steeler Joshua Dobbs shedding the pressure by the Broncos when Kenny Pickett was getting gobbled up by less. It seems that for the passing game to progress, he needs to get the ball out quickly when the defense brings the house, he needs to be more physical when he's extending the play, or preferably, both.
14. | | Vikings | +1 | 6-5 |
15. | | Bengals | -5 | 5-5 | Joe Burrow's season has come to end with a wrist injury. Things look bleak, but Jake Browning was good in college in 2016, so there's still hope.
16. | | Saints | +1 | 5-5 | "There is a large graveyard filled with my enemies. I do not wish to add to it, but will if given no choice. Those who pick fights with me do so at their own peril, but maybe this is their lucky day..." - Saints WR type tweet 15 mins before either they're cut, or the coach is fired. Which way will the buttered toast land in the coming weeks?
17. | | Broncos | +4 | 5-5 |
18. | | Chargers | -2 | 4-6 | https://twitter.com/Stop_Hammerzeit/status/1726356277348257930
19. | | Colts | -- | 5-5 | The Colts were on a bye this week, but just for fun, these are the starting QBs they're set to face the rest of this season: Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Jake Browning, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Aidan O'Connell and CJ Stroud. PFN declared ours the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule a week ago, and that was before Joe Burrow's season-ending wrist injury. A Week 18 win-and-in matchup against the Texans in Indy is definitely on the table 👀
20. | | Buccaneers | -2 | 4-6 | I'm depressed.
21. | | Rams | +4 | 4-6 | It took some friendly referees and a last second missed kick, but the Rams finally did enough to get back in the win column. Despite McVay’s awful time management and playcalling at the end of the game, the defense yet again carried the offense just enough and tanking is on pause as the schedule lightens up from here.
22. | | Raiders | -2 | 5-6 | There is no such thing as moral victories, and we weren't able to get the job done against the Dolphins this week. That being said, our defense was able to keep them in check, and forced 3 turnovers, unfortunately our offense was only able to produce 6 points off of those turnovers. At the end of the day though, I'm happier watching this team lose with AP coaching and AOC behind center than I was McDaniels and Jimmy G. Onto the Chiefs.
23. | | Falcons | +1 | 4-6 | A bye week to prepare for Nawlins means the offensive scheme will run as smoothly and efficiently as ever, right? Ridder given the nod at starter again is probably for the best, but best is still questionable to win the South. Atlanta needs a win this week, and losing Grady is a bigger blow than quarterback. It's time for Nielsen to prove why he deserves this DC promotion, perfect time to use his in house knowledge to beat his former team.
24. | | Packers | +3 | 4-6 | I watched the game from the bleachers in Lambeau this week and was not disappointed! The guy next to me was like "Jordan Love's gotta ink a game winning drive one of these days" and I reminded him that he already had a comeback against the Saints this year and he was like "well I guess we're looking for the second one then!" and we held up two fingers for the whole drive and then Doubs caught the touchdown and we all cheered and it was great! And the guys in front of us were like "ok Herbert wins these I'm getting flashbacks from the Rose Bowl he's gonna run it in and we're gonna be sad" and unlike the Rose Bowl Herbert just let his receivers drop passes and the Wisconsin team won and we were happy! I don't know these people's names but we celebrated like we were best friends. Sports are great y'all
25. | | Jets | -3 | 4-6 | And so the Zach Wilson era comes to an end. Make no mistake, this isn't a Sam Darnold situation where the organization failed to support the player. It's not as though Zach had no supporting cast during his time with and failed because the GM didn't invest in offense. In Zach's second year, he was throwing to Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Tyler Conklin, Breece Hall, and was protected by one of the most heavily invested offensive lines. The Jets had an elite defense for Zachs second and third year. Some players just don't have it. Sadly, the Jets downgraded their offense in every conceivable way to prepare for an Aaron Rodgers lead "all-in" push. The result is a historically bad offense paired with a very good defense and a team that will probably win just enough games to miss out on a Marvin Harrison Jr. level talent. Here's to picking 8th in the draft and to skipping the Black Friday game to hang up some Christmas lights. Fire Joe Douglas.
26. | | Commanders | -3 | 4-7 | Let the Ron RivEra end. Getting absolutely dunked on by Tommy DeVito should be the end of more than a few careers, especially a "defensive-minded" head coach and his defensive coordinator who have had several seasons and drafts to put together something serviceable. Brian Daboll hasn't beat the Cowboys or Eagles once, which is hilarious.. until you realize he's never lost to us once. This end result is F-tier. I suppose there is some consolation in the fact that Rivera's knack for getting shithoused by the Giants every year has contributed to their long term commitment to Danny Dimes, but boy does it feel bad. Leave it to this team to sack an undrafted free agent 3rd string quarterback NINE times, but still let him hang 3TDs on you, get no interceptions and overall have him look like Tom Brady out there. Remember, defense was supposed to be this team's strong point - defense is where they've spent most of their draft cap. Awful. Not that offense was any better with their 6 turnovers and overall dismal performance, starting with Howell who had what is probably his worst game yet. What a deflated, sad team. With the Cowboys (twice), Dolphins, Jets and Niners all left to come, the bottom of this pit may not yet be reached. Cowboys fans must be collectively hard as rocks knowing they have us twice in the next 7 weeks.
27. | | Titans | -1 | 3-7 | The Titans incapability to put together a basic football operation was displayed again on Sunday. The weakness of the offensive line combined with a defense that can’t get off the field never gave the Titans a chance to compete. Will Levis was pressured on 40% of his drop backs and the Titans only were able to run 38 plays. The 38 plays that the Titans ran was the fewest by any team this year and the 4th fewest over the past decade.
28. | | Cardinals | -- | 2-9 | Reddit's golden boy from Texas wearing a number 7 defeated an underrated Arizona player wearing #1. Wait, this isn’t r/nba! My bad folks. CJ Stroud is Kyler Murray’s father.
29. | | Bears | -- | 3-8 | In the wild, bears have no natural predator. That means they have no reason to be afraid of anything. The most unforgivable thing about the Chicago Bears coaching staff, on the other hand, is that they are absolute cowards led by a coward. For a season and a half now they've had nothing to lose by being aggressive in key moments - because everyone already expects them to lose. And yet every single time (except against Denver), they have consistently chosen the cowardly option. Chicago's total collapse against Detroit wasn't 'unimaginable' or 'stunning' or 'historic' or any of those other superlatives you saw online. It was absolutely predictable and sadly inevitable.
30. | | Giants | +1 | 3-8 | The Giants won on Sunday, proving that even led by resident basement-dweller, chicken cutlet enjoyer and 3rd string QB Tommy "Italian Stallion" DeVito, the G-Men still own the Commanders. The win itself was divisive among fans, as some were hoping for a full-fledged tank session while others just wanted to see some competent football. Regardless, fans have to be encouraged by the play from Tommy Salami on Sunday, who now has more games with multiple passing TDs than Kenny Pickett and over twice as many passing TDs as Daniel Jones in one-third the starts. The high-flying defense and a hopefully revitalized offense under Tommy Pastrami will now look to continue their success against a similarly woeful team in New England.
31. | | Patriots | -1 | 2-8 | The oldest tree in my yard is a Black Cherry. It’s seen about 100 trips around the sun, but it won’t last much longer. I found it choked by bittersweet vines and suffering from gummosis when I moved in. It’s tough watching this team fall into decay; no doubt about that. At this point the struggle is no longer with sadness or disappointment. The new boogeyman is boredom and disengagement. The bye week is a reprieve from sitting at the sick bed listening to “the machine that goes bing!” beat the tempo of creeping torpor. Have we seen the last win of Bill’s Patriots career? Will he rise for one last great day? Will he recover in a different climate, and have a different sort of goodbye? We keep vigil not because it is joyful, but because it is a simple expression of love. The weather may have changed, but the relationship endures. The program Bill leads has been not just a source of entertainment, but inspiration for my entire adult life. There is no football fan alive today who can honestly say that Belichick has not left an indelible mark upon the game itself. His reign of glory lasted longer than it had any right to, and everything that has a beginning has an ending. I’m here to honor that ending. I hold the same gratitude in my heart that I held in the best of times. Those memories are mine. They cannot be taken. I could never ask for more than I have already received. So I sit and watch as this team falls into repose. Ready to enjoy one last sunny day should the skies clear, but comforted by the warm glow of celebration radiating through time even as the wind blows fiercer, and frost glazes the windows. Some day that Black Cherry will expire. New trees will grow in the light it once shaded, and the soil they enjoy will be fertile for generations thanks to its contributions in both life and death.
32. | | Panthers | -- | 1-9 | We need a better offensive line. We need an offensive line that cares about their QB getting sacked. We need better wide receivers. We need our coaches to get pissed and hold players accountable. We need an identity. We need offense. We need a new GM. We need a new owner. We have the Titans next. Somehow this is a winnable game. Keep Pounding.