_HGCenty

joined 11 months ago
[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

This is not supposed to be a football score.

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago (4 children)

Subtext: Brady checked out of a lot of shit McDaniels play calls.

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago (11 children)

r/NFL won't like this but there is no good answer here.

Grass is not a cure all - it reduces certain types of injuries but it increases the chance of other types of injuries. And the condition of the grass also matters.

Maybe I'm also biased as a Seahawks fan, who knows the graveyard for our players is Glendale, a grass stadium.

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

Kickers tend to be the all time leading scorers for every franchise...

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

They should hire a Panthers beat journalist for maximum 🍿

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago (2 children)
  • 2013 Broncos
  • 2016 Falcons
  • 2018 Chiefs

I always think of a finesse football team as one with high flying offense that gets let down by their defense.

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

Electoral map of when Russ actually runs for president?

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Fans say they want balance between offense and defense.

Fans say they want it to be possible for a team to be successful not just with an elite QB.

But do they really??

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

If you asked me to softly toss the ball half a yard forwards every play, I'd also make 100% of my passes.

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

This is the type of game where Vikings get a last minute TD only to miss the XP and we go into OT at 9-9

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago (1 children)

One of the most infuriating things about fans, especially many that frequent the subreddits, is that the opposing teams aren't allowed to play well - if your team loses it can't possibly just because this season, you came up against a better team or a team further along in their rebuild and compete window... No it's a sign that drastic change is needed.

[–] _HGCenty@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Mike Florio would also like you to get off his lawn.

 

https://preview.redd.it/h3jdp82qys1c1.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a018ed99a2bf55cba74524209eafb9f1f89dce9

The most efficient rushing team in the league, the Baltimore Ravens, still only averages -0.03 EPA per rush play. Averaging across the whole league, the average rushing play is -0.09 EPA and the average dropback play is 0.06 EPA.

Taken at face value, teams should abandon the run and just pass. This of course would be too simplistic as one could argue that the threat of a run helps unlocking the passing game and improves the EPA.

However, another way to look at this is perhaps EPA is just a flawed metric and is either too simplistic or is missing a key nuance in its modelling. Perhaps there's a flat EPA adjustment we need to apply to all plays that would make rushing EPAs positive? Perhaps too much weight is given to the explosive pass? Perhaps we need to adjust the era data from when teams rarely played two high safeties to counter today's passing league?

Nevertheless, I wonder if more and more OCs in the league are using EPA and other advanced analytics and coming to the conclusion you might when looking at this data that passing is far superior to running and ending up with too many teams trying to pass it on too many downs, abandoning the run and putting too much pressure on their average QB?

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