The NFL trade deadline for 2023 has come and gone. Unfortunately, we didn’t get as much action altogether as last year, nor did we have legit superstars being moved. Most frustrating among the names everybody wanted to see with a change of scenery was Davante Adams, whose frustration in Las Vegas has continued to grow and since then the names at the top of the operation have been let go. However, we did see a few contenders make potentially crucial additions and also a couple of surprises on Halloween.
So now I want to take a look at those eight trades that went down this week, talk about the compensation and break down what those mean for both sides. I did not include Kevin Byard being shipped from Tennessee to Philadelphia for a bag of chips a week prior, because Eagles GM Howie Roseman yet again was able to acquire a veteran DB that should be a key pieces at a position of need for way under market value.
Let’s focus on the rest of the list now:
Seattle beefs up the D-line
Seahawks receive: Leonard Williams
Giants receive: 2024 second-round and 2025 fifth-round draft pick
Back on the 1st of September, I predicted that the Seahawks would win the NFC West with a 12-5 record and after somewhat shockingly losing in convincing fashion at home to the Rams on opening day – who we weren’t sure about what they were back then – their only loss since then came at Cincinnati in week six, when they had goal-to-go twice with a chance to win the game late. So with Seattle having shown the ability to out-battle anybody in the NFC, with Philly as the only team somewhat separated from the rest of the pack, they make sense as “buyers” here. They’ve won games primarily fueled by their offense or defense, won close but also created separation to their opponents. The two areas that have held them back a little at times have been the offensive and interior defensive line. Offensively, from guard to guard the film and grading would suggest they’ve been slightly below-average but not catastrophic, while both their starting tackles have missed most of the season. So while it may still take a couple of weeks, Abraham Lucas returning should salvage that right side eventually. Defensively, I already had questions coming into the year and then the expected starter at nose-tackle in Bryan Mone has yet to return from the torn ACL he suffered late last season. Therefore, Jarran Reed has been forced to kind of play out of position and some of their young guys have been on the field more than anticipated. Now adding Big Cat Williams, you bring in a stout presence, who they can line up anywhere from 2i- to 5-technique, in order to give them more flexibility with their fronts and take pressure off the guy at the nose to regularly get combo-blocked. His presence compensates to some degree for Dre’Mont Jones not being the strongest run-defender on early downs and you can put Williams at the nose and use him to free up fellow rushers on different games.
New Yorkers clearly didn’t expect the season to go the way they hoped for. The Jets have recovered from the shock of losing Aaron Rodgers on their opening series of week one, now sitting at 4-3 with hopes of their quarterback making a miraculous recovery from the torn Achilles for a potential playoff push, with him already tossing balls around pre-game. The G-Men unfortunately have dealt with a massive amount of injuries themselves, but even considering that the product on the field has been highly discouraging. Sitting at 2-6, coming off one of the ugliest offensive games of the 21st century, where they lost in devastating fashion to their cross-city rivals despite being on third quarterback Tommy DeVito, who finished the day with negative passing yards, their brass has to see that this is a lost season. Somewhat surprisingly, they didn’t move Saquon Barkley, who they were able to agree on an altered franchise-tag for one year basically during training camp, but instead they moved on from the guy with the highest cap hit on the entire team at 32.3 million dollars. The nuance to this deal, so it made sense for Seattle, was the financial compensation. New York had already paid out the majority of the money prior to this move and they agreed on taking care of 10 million dollars on top of it, leaving the Seahawks with basically 650.000 to pay what is still an impactful defender up front. So considering he is expected to net them a compensatory fourth-round pick in 2025, they Giants paid that extra cash for basically (just under) a second-round pick. Considering the long-term implications of Daniel Jones’ massive contract, having that additional shot at a fairly cheap talent is worth it from their perspective.
Atlanta tries to compensate for Grady Jarrett injury
Falcons receive: Kentavius Street and 2025 seventh-round draft pick
Eagles receive: 2024 sixth-round draft pick
The Falcons have been one of the most infuriating teams to watch this season. Diving into the tape on offense, you see them be able to move the ball pretty effectively, but then just don’t cash in on those drives. That is backed up by the numbers, where they’re at least average in success rate (42.1%) and yards per play (5.1), but bottom-ten in percentage of drives ending in points (31.9%) and turnovers (15.4%). Meanwhile, the defense had been much more consistent on a weekly basis, not having surrendered more than 24 points until this past Sunday and were tied for fourth league-wide in success rate (39.9%). So as they’re trying to finally put it together on offense and find consistent play under center, seeing the other side allow rookie QB Will Levis light them up for four touchdowns through the air and a season-high in points, is certainly disappointing. On top of that, they soon after received the news that perennially underrated interior D-lineman Grady Jarrett will miss the rest of the year with a torn ACL. Atlanta is in the bottom-three in terms of sacks (15) and tackles for loss (30), but they had been able to set a firm line of scrimmage and push the pocket pretty well. So losing the one true difference-maker along the front definitely hurts. Thinking that bringing in Kentavius Street from Philadelphia would off-set that would be an unfair expectation, but we’ve seen this guy be able to add some disruption as a rotational player. His only two years of playing a full 17 games – the final one in San Francisco and his one in New Orleans – he recorded 6.5 sacks and 11 TFLs across (56 total stops) across 869 total snaps. Adding depth at the very least makes sense for a late-round pick-swap, being tied for the NFC South lead at 4-4 currently.
For the Eagles, I’m not going to waste a lot of time on this. Considering they don’t even need 50% of snaps from one of the most productive interior D-linemen in the league in Jalen Carter and their OTHER Georgia first-round pick in Nolan Smith being third string on the depth chart, they’re still absolutely loaded up front. Street is an effective player when called upon, but he’s only averaged 11 snaps per game so far, which put him ninth in that pecking order. This gives them the ability to get someone like Smith on the field a little bit more and see if he can become more of an impact name down the stretch and they get a free pick swap basically, after signing Street for this year at 600.000 dollars. So the effects it may have on a young player getting a little more playing time and having that one extra roster spot to potentially elevate somebody from the practice squad at a position that isn’t already a massive strength, is something that could pay off regardless of any compensation.
Chicago spends another early second-rounder at a position of need
Bears receive: Montez Sweat
Commanders receive: 2024 second-round draft pick
Considering Washington proclaimed prior to this past Sunday that they would be willing to move on from one of their edge defenders at least depending on if they beat the Eagles or not and while they did keep it close yet again and I wasn’t sure they would ultimately move on from Montez Sweat and Chase Young, the shocking part to me is that the Bears would be in the market for one of them. And that is not based on Chicago’s needs, as they certainly needed help at that position, considering their ten sacks across eight games are five fewer than any other team in the league and eighth-year veteran Yannick Ngakoue, clearly on the down-swing of his career, is the biggest name they have. Sweat having 6.5 sacks and 11 QB hits by himself provides a massive upgrade over whoever they’d otherwise give snaps to. With that being said, up to this point they haven’t worked out an extension with him, since it would be just insane for them to not look at this as a long-term investment for what currently is a 2-6 team. More importantly, they did this just last year! Sure, Sweat is a substantially better player than Chase Claypool was at the time and particularly in retrospective on what a disaster his time in Chicago turned out to be. However, in principle, they once again invested an early second-rounder (currently slated to be pick 35) in a player on a rookie deal without the benefit of quality play at a low cost. The Steelers got a starting cornerback in Joey Porter Jr. out of it this past April and now Washington gets to re-set with what might end up as an equally talented prospect at a much lower cap number, since they would’ve otherwise probably let him walk anyway. I understand that Ryan Poles needs those cornerstone pieces to build the roster around, but I just don’t agree with this, when you already spent a combined 31.5 million annually on Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards and DeMarcus Walker this offseason for at least the next three years. And unless the groundwork on a new deal is already done, I just don’t like how they’re putting all the leverage in Sweat’s hands.
On Washington’s end, I was once again surprised that they ended up moving on from both their young defensive ends (Sweat and Chase Young), but this seemed like a predetermined decision, once they moved to 3-5 with their second loss to the Eagles – albeit it in another highly competitive affair until the end. New ownership clearly wants to move this franchise into a new direction and at this point it appears that it would take a miraculous turnaround in spite of moving on from a couple of promising young defenders, for Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio to stick around. There was some thought before the season that Eric Bienemy may ultimately be elevated and that may still be an option if the offense continues to show improvement and they people at the top haven’t settled on anybody becoming available. Quarterback Sam Howell has been extremely up-and-down, but the EB effect has been felt in the nation’s capital to some degree and also when you look at the decline for Kansas City’s attack. So I won’t rule that out yet, considering he was asked to elevate a former fifth-round pick at the most crucial position, even though I’d say it’s pretty unlikely. The variance on the defensive side of the ball is the area that isn’t acceptable, because even with some injuries holding them back, they’ve allowed an average of 23.9 points per game since that first of four years with the current regime – and they’re 31st in the NFL right now (28.5 PPG). Their collection of four first-round picks along the D-line prior to this week was definitely their one bright spot, but clearly they’re not on track for a contending franchise as currently constructed and they might need that extra draft capital if they want to be part of the quarterback market in this upcoming draft. I’m just worried about who they have rushing the passer off the edge now and would hope this finally gets fifth-round pick K.J. Henry (Clemson) on the field, who has yet to log a snap on defense as a rookie.
San Francisco bring in another highly-drafted freak edge rusher
49ers receive: Chase Young
Commanders receive: 2024 third-round draft pick
Since I just talked about the Commanders in extensive fashion, I thought it would make sense to go straight to the other edge defender they just shipped off. We know that 49ers GM John Lynch and company are always in the market for talented defensive linemen and in particular, their ability to bring in formerly highly-drafted guys and let D-line coach Kris Kocurek work his magic, has reaped major benefits for them. I know that Chase Young has lost some of the shine since being drafted second overall back in 2020, due to being banged up for about half of his young career, but this guy was one of my highly-graded prospects ever, he was the clear Defensive Rookie of the Year and this year he’s on pace for easily the best numbers of his career (five sacks, nine QB hits and six TFLs). Drake Jackson was bound for a breakout sophomore campaign, racking up three sacks vs. the Steelers on opening day, but has not been as effective since and with just 15 snaps per game over the past month, it appears he’s not full healthy. So while Nick Bosa is tied for a league-high 44 pressures against the belief of people just looking at sacks (which he has five of), they clearly needed to add some juice to that unit. The 49ers had already brought in Randy Gregory from Denver at the start of October for a swap of sixth- for a seventh-round pick, who they’ll only be paying 840.000 dollars for the remainder of this season and then after a 14-million-dollar cap hit in 2024, they can move from him without any type of dead cap. Now they bring in Young on similar terms, as they’ll only be paying him 560.000 dollars on the final year of his rookie deal, with Washington accounting for the rest of the money, and all it cost them in terms of team-building resources most likely is their third-round pick this next April being pushed back a year and 10-20 spots, as they’ll be a team at the end of each round, which isn’t too far off the 2025 comp pick range. So really for them it’s a home-run on all fronts.
So now I won’t dive too much into the Commanders’ side of the deal. I do understand why Montez Sweat may be worth a pick by one round higher, due to the extensive injury history of Chase Young, but you’d still think they’d be able to net a little bit more for a former second overall selection. Considering any contender could’ve offered the same compensation, Washington would have probably preferred their offer, based on the fact San Francisco made it to the NFC Championship game each of the last two years and they have a good chance of making it there again, which would move that pick back towards the end of the standard 96 selections across three rounds. That doesn’t even take into account potentially wanting to send young to the opposite conference. So I understand that there’s some urgency for this new ownership ground to quickly collect these additional resources and have the flexibility to turn around the roster fairly quickly – most likely under new guidance – but with as well as Young had played, I thought they had a chance to get a second-rounder back or at least do this deal with a team likely to select a little bit earlier.
Minnesota adds veteran QB after Kirk Cousins goes down
Vikings receive: Joshua Dobbs and 2024 seventh-round draft pick
Cardinals receive: 2024 sixth-round draft pick
We’ve reached the Vikings portion of this program and this is definitely a curious one, because we weren’t sure what exactly they were as an organization coming into each of the past two seasons. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah called this a “competitive rebuild” ahead of 2022, yet head coach Kevin O’Connell did an excellent job of leading him team to a perfect 11-0 record in one-score games and a 13-4 season overall, only to lose at home to another very surprising Wildcard team in the (9-7-1) Giants. Starting this year off 0-3 with all three losses coming by one score proved that negative regression was imminent. However, following that up by winning three of their next four (two against the Panthers and Bears, but also the 49ers and seven-point loss to the Chiefs), all of sudden gave them some hope again, especially with how murky the NFC has been outside the top-four teams. Because of that, seeing Kirk Cousins tear his Achilles this past Sunday in a 24-10 win at Green Bay was a gut-punch to the entire organization. So while detached from the situation, you’d look at this in a very pragmatic sense and let it make the decision for you, to just ride it out with what you have and put yourself in closer range for a quarterback in next year’s draft, you are currently the seven-seed and the rest of the team deserves better than just throwing fifth-round pick Jaren Hall (BYU) out there. This way you placate your offensive head coach and fanbase, for the least impactful pick-swap possible in one year. I had Joshua Dobbs at number 22 as part of my quarterback rankings a couple of weeks ago and while he’s definitely taken a step down over the past month (four TDs vs. five INTs), I probably wouldn’t drop him down too far from that. When you don’t press him to be more than he is, he can give you quality play and add an effective scrambling dimension.
For the Cardinals, this move in a vacuum may not be as meaningful as it may end up being for the Vikings, who remain in the hunt for that final Wildcard spot, compared to the 1-7 group moving on for Dobbs. However, on a larger spectrum, how the rest of Arizona’s season turns out and what their ultimate plan at the quarterback position is, could end up actually being more fascinating. Considering they only teams below .500 currently still on their schedule are the Rams and then a trip to Chicago, nobody’s expecting this team to really make noise still, even though they had at least been largely competitive so far. The interesting component here is when Kyler Murray returns and how first-year general manager Monti Ossenfort makes his decision on who they’ll build the franchise around at that spot. I believe Kyler generally is one of the most underrated signal-callers across the NFL, considering the mismanagement of the rest of the roster and the high quality of play we’ve seen from him when healthy and getting some help. Yet, with the Panthers just winning their first game of the season, Arizona is once again on pace for the first overall pick in next year’s draft, along with having the Texans selection on top of it, which currently would be number 12. So they could still choose to play another one of those fifth-rounders from this past April in Clayton Tune (Houston) and stay on schedule for USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye at the top of the class. Or even if they’re happy sticking with Kyler, at least giving him a little more time and setting yourself up to be in control of the draft, as six of eight teams between their picks right now may be in the QB market and willing to part with substantial resources – including Chicago currently with second and third overall. If they do put Kyler back out there as early as this Sunday, I’m interested in what he’d need to show them, in order for them not to potentially increase their draft capital even further and re-set the rookie QB clock. And that brings us to the one player the Vikes already traded away.
Jacksonville adds insurance to the interior O-line
Jaguars receive: Ezra Cleveland
Vikings receive: 2024 sixth-round draft pick
Based on weight that some other names have among the public, the Niners getting Chase Young for a third-round pick and a couple of these other trades may appear to be bigger “steals” but I could argue the Jags sending a sixth-rounder to Minnesota for Ezra Cleveland is the savviest move among them. The fourth-year guard out of Boise State has not been a standout performer necessarily and some fans had wanted a replacement, but he’s been above-average starter ever since being put in the lineup, which he had done for 45 straight games with the Vikings. This season he’s off to his best start, earning a 73.8 overall grade from Pro Football Focus (eighth-best among 84 qualified guards), having allowed just ten pressures and one sack across 248 pass blocking snaps. Looking at that front-five for Jacksonville, they’re pretty happy with how consistent Luke Fortner has been at center through 25 career games – which he’s started all of them – and with Cam Robinson back from suspension, Walker Little has moved inside from tackle to guard on the left side. However, otherwise they only had Tyler Shatley to back up those interior spots (as more of a designated center) and you’d like the flexibility and you’d like to be able to kick Little out to tackle, if one of those book-end goes down. Jacksonville has reportedly been looking for answers along the middle of the offensive line, as they’re currently on a five-game winning streak and have real expectations to compete for a much murkier AFC than we initially thought. So even if Cleveland doesn’t start (right now), they’re being pro-active here, to add insurance at a position group that had the potential to become a problem area. I think that was great process, to stay patient and ultimately acquire a proven asset at a fairly shallow position group.
While this wasn’t necessarily on my radar, unless the Vikings lost the game along with Kirk Cousins on Sunday and had gone into wholesale mode, this isn’t necessarily shocking on their end. They did sign veteran Dalton Risner following week two, who was actually a better player than Cleveland throughout his rookie deal but somewhat inexplicably wasn’t scooped up by anybody throughout the offseason, coming off a late-season elbow injury. So while he’s been called into action these last two weeks in place of the other starting guard Ed Ingram, I’m guessing they still want to see what they have in the second-year man and don’t look at Risner as a substantial downgrade to Cleveland on the left side, while depth may not be much of a consideration, if they’re being honest with their own expectations. For either one of those two, maybe getting a little better than a latter-half sixth-rounder would have been nice for Minnesota, but it’s pretty fair. And I wanted to quickly address the fact that Danielle Hunter wasn’t traded, after he had been one of the names discussed the most leading up to the deadline, in relation to where Minnesota may stand at this point. Even though the Kirk Cousins injury certainly hurt their expectations for the rest of the season, now being 4-4 and not being in a wholesale mode, to bring down the general feeling around the team even further now, I believe the Vikings were looking to get back at least a second-round pick plus a little extra in return. No other teams were willing to give that up for half a season of the veteran edge rusher and therefore a I deal didn’t get.
Detroit brings in a field-stretching wide receiver
Lions receive: Donovan Peoples-Jones
Browns receive: 2025 sixth-round draft pick
So while I would’ve liked general manager Brad Holmes and company to be a little more aggressive with trying to add another difference-making pass-catcher and/or edge rusher, this is very much in line with how they’ve handled their business. They’re not afraid to target what are deemed lesser-valued positions for modern standards in terms of the draft and then in terms of veterans, they rely on free agency and few trades they do make to acquire players, they typically are low-risk. Detroit has been doing this at the wide receiver position, where along with trading way up from the back of the first round of the 2022 draft to the 12th overall pick for Alabama’s Jameson Williams, they used a conditional late-round pick swap in 2015 for Denzel Mims from the Jets, who appeared like a mishandled talent, who they still be able to squeeze something out of. However, he was waived a couple of weeks prior to the season kickoff with an injury. Williams unfortunately has not paid off at all yet. And let’s be fair here – he was coming off a torn ACL until playing sparingly over the last six weeks of last season and he missed the first month this year due to a suspension for gambling. So he needs time to re-gain confidence and acclimate himself into the offseason, but outside of a 41- and 45-yard touchdown in each year so far, he has just five catches for 26 yards on just under 200 total snaps. So adding another long, field-stretching receiver like Peoples-Jones, who totaled well over 1400 yards over the two prior seasons, makes sense generally. As good as Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight-end Sam LaPorta have been, they lack that element on the perimeter with consistency – even if DPJ is having the worst season of his career so far – but that’s why they’re getting him at this discount. Goff is already just one behind Matthew Stafford for the league-lead in completions of 20+ yards (35).
For Cleveland, I just mentioned the regression we’ve seen by the fourth-year receiver. DPJ currently is on pace for career-worst numbers in yards per target (5.4), yards after catch on average (2.8) and passer rating when targeted (38.4). His ability to win down the field in isolated situations and create explosives on run-after-catch plays, such as him catching a crossing route, has defined his early career. With the Browns transitioning to more of a spread-out approach offensively, where they don’t take as many shots off play-action, that skill-set doesn’t really fit as much within the offense, never mind the sub-par quarterback play for the team as a whole. So this is a bit of a misfit toy in general and you like how he projects with Detroit a lot better. Along with that, Cleveland has quietly put together one of the deeper receiving corps in the league and this allows them to get more of those young guys out there. DPJ actually led the Browns in snap share, as they have three guys playing 78% of snaps or more currently. Marquise Goodwin, David Bell and Cedric Tillman all sit between an eight and 15% share. While Goodwin offers that speed component in a smaller frame, Tillman is the one I’m really interested in seeing more of. Considering the construction of the roster, seeing the Browns use their first draft pick in April (74th) on him was certainly surprisingly, but it felt more like taking the best player available and them being intrigued with the idea of a more prototypical big outside receiver. He had some really nice moments in preseason and I think would add a more physical presence as a larger part of their rotation, being able to win over the middle or using his body at the catch-point. So with Peoples-Jones not being a great fit and therefore part of their future, at least getting something back before you get a couple of other guys more involved, makes some sense.
Buffalo adds a veteran presence to a wounded secondary
Bills receive: Rasul Douglas and 2024 fifth-round draft pick
Packers receive: 2024 third-round draft pick
Finally, my favorite fit in terms of a team addressing a clear area of weakness, I really like what Buffalo did here. This defense has not been the same over the past month as the unit we saw destroy the Raiders and Commanders before holding the Dolphins two touchdowns below their season average (20 points). And the main reason for that have been season-ending injuries for Tre’Davious White (torn Achilles), Matt Milano (broken leg) and DaQuan Jones (torn pec). The latter of those two seem to have outside shots at making a return for a playoff run, but White unfortunately will once again not make a return for the third straight season. So the Bills desperately needed one of their young guys to step up. Dane Jackson and Christian Benford especially have performed above the level of expectations as late day-three selections, but last year’s first-rounder Kaiir Elam unfortunately has been a pretty big disappointment. While I’d say Buffalo’s coverage structures take pressure off their guys on the perimeter with how much zone they call on paper, within that, you still end up with Elam isolated on the backside with someone like Calvin Ridley when you run quarters, and he gets routed up. Rasul Douglas isn’t your traditional shutdown boundary corner, but where he excels at is keying on route patterns of closing on stuff as a high-low defender, he can move inside in case Taron Johnson misses a little bit of time, he’s good at funneling the run inside and being a reliable tackler and most importantly, he’s a play-maker, with 12 turnovers forced and two pick-sixes since the start of 2021. And looking at different trade value charts, this compensation amounts to about a fifth-round pick – so definitely below market value for a versatile starter in the secondary.
As we flip things around with the Packers, this feels like just trying to get something back in return for a team that clearly isn’t at a point where they feel like they can compete in the NFC. Sitting at 2-4 and being on a four-game losing streak, with a bye week in-between those, there just hasn’t been a whole lot to hang your hat on recently. They beat up on an overrated Bears squad in convincing fashion on opening Sunday, lost on a walk-off field goal at Atlanta and then were able to put together an impressive 18-point comeback in the fourth quarter against the Saints. I thought they had the defensive front and a couple of cover-guys to put pressure on opponents to hold up one-on-one while the offense would be built around Aaron Jones and a quarterback who deliver a few explosives down the field and as a runner. However, Jordan Love simply hasn’t been accurate enough on a consistent level, Jones hasn’t been healthy for the most part and the defense may include a couple of cornerstone pieces, but it feels like a collection of highly-drafted misfit toys under DC Joe Barry’s stubborn, antiquated scheme. Weirdly enough though, I thought Douglas was one of the few guys that made sense for what they’ve been trying to do and has at least played up to the three-year, 21-million-dollar extension from March last year. So this must have been more about trying to get something back for a player, who has somewhat openly been talking about how the offense and general operation has been a bit of a mess, from what I can tell. Either way, it feels like they’ll be making a switch in terms of play-calling duties defensively at least after the season. I thought Chicago’s Jaylon Johnson would’ve made a lot of sense for Buffalo initially, but getting Douglas from their division-rivals instead gets them more bang for their buck.
If you enjoyed this breakdown, please consider checking out the original piece and feel free to check out all my other video content here!
Twitter: @ halilsfbtalk
Instagram: @ halilsrealfootballtalk
