Better than their record: Buffalo Bills & Atlanta Falcons
Worse than their record: Pittsburgh Steelers & Philadelphia Eagles
hallach_halil
joined 1 year ago
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We’ve arrived at the week of Thanksgiving and since I’m in a generous, giving mood, I decided to give something to look forward to for fanbases of the teams that aren’t currently projected to be factors in the playoff picture. And while this includes a couple of teams from the NFC South, that could ultimately still host a playoff game due to the division they’re in, and two .500 teams from the AFC, I think when you look at the list of teams, they all still lack certain elements, which the best way to acquire those is with high draft picks.
I will start by quickly listing the current draft order – if the season ended today – then share my general bird's-eye view of the upcoming class, before we work our way through each team, shortly discussing their overall state and how they may already look ahead to February through April with their scouting staffs to some degree.
The cut-off for the teams discussed here is pick 16, which makes sense considering the next teams up would be the Bengals and Bills before we get to the current playoff seeds – Cincinnati may have a couple of uncomfortable decisions to make in free agency but were on pace to be one of the most dangerous groups in the AFC, while Buffalo is still very much in the thick of things with the way they looked this past Sunday and being just half a game back from the number seven seed.
Graphic provided by tankathon.com
General thoughts on the ’24 class:
I’m glad to be ahead of schedule at this point of the calendar year compared to the past in terms of my draft evaluations, particularly because I know the type of effort it takes every year to get to a point, where I feel like I can talk about 85-90% of drafted players in an educated fashion. This past April, I made it exactly through the first five rounds until a name was announced who I hadn’t studied on tape. Right now, I have extended notes on close to 150 prospects expected to be part of this upcoming class. I haven’t done in-depth studies on them, to where I’d feel comfortable actually ranking them in order, particularly considering many of them still have key conference championships and potentially even playoff games to evaluate. However, I definitely have a good grasp on the top-end talent and depth at every position group, players I feel will transition well to the next level, and mostly how the NFL will look at them, pending medical reports.
Therefore, in terms of those top-16 selections I’ve referenced, here are the players I’m pretty certain will be part of that group:
Quarterbacks (2) – Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina)
Wide receivers (3) – Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), Malik Nabers (LSU) and Keon Coleman (Florida State)
Tight-end (1) – Brock Bowers (Georgia)
Offensive tackles (3) – Olu Fashanu (Penn State), Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and J.C. Latham (Alabama)
Edge defenders (2) – Dallas Turner (Alabama) and Chop Robinson (Penn State)
Interior D-line (1) – Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
Cornerback (1) – Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
Other players in consideration right now: EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State), DB Cooper DeJean (Iowa), WR Rome Odunze (Washington), CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson), OT Amarius Mims (Georgia), CB Kalen King (Penn State) and multiple quarterbacks
We’ve got a long process in front of us, but ultimately I have a hard time imagining a situation where the first two players off the board aren’t those two QBs, unless the Cardinals stick at number two overall and don’t find a trade partner. At this point, the pendulum has swung too far regarding the public perception of Caleb Williams in regard to the rest of the class. I have seen him operate effectively in structure as part of an Air Raid offense when his protection hasn’t been atrocious, plus then he adds a play-making component to the table that is second to none who I’ve ever studied. Yet, I can equally see many teams fall in love with Drake Maye, who plays the position more by the book, but has incredible arm talent and athletic skills, very reminiscent of Justin Herbert to me, although we actually have gotten to see him read the full field and make more NFL-type of throws at UNC, compared to Herbert at Oregon. To me, it’s a true 1A and 1B situation. Where it becomes interesting is if a team falls in love with one of the following four names I’d say – Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), Bo Nix (Oregon), J.J. McCarthy (Michigan), or Jayden Daniels (LSU). Depending on who ultimately declares, this could be one of the deepest groups of signal-callers we’ve ever seen, but at that position, you don’t wait around on “your guy” typically.
After the top two QBs, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Olu Fashanu are true blue-chip players, who I believe will be treated as such by the league. Both wide receiver and offensive tackle appear very exciting and we could see two or three other names at those respective spots come off the board over the front half of the first round, but Harrison and Fashanu separate themselves due to their combination of insane natural talent and technical prowess at this stage of their careers – in particular the Ohio State pass-catcher when it comes to the latter part. While the sheer amount of WR names as usual exceeds OTs and there is a certain element of scarcity by position that could to teams feeling like they can wait a little bit on pass-catchers, I do believe this group includes talents that are worthy of overlooking that aspect. That includes Georgia TE Brock Bowers, who is easily in a tier of his own and should absolutely hear his name called early, despite positional value elements that may go against him.
Edge defender is a very interesting group, because I don’t believe there are as many high-end prospects in this discussion. There are plenty of day two and especially day three guys to consider, but after the top-six names I’d say, there’s a pretty significant drop-off. I did not include UCLA edge defender Laiatu Latu as part of the list above, due to a lack of knowledge on his medical situation, considering he was once forced to retire from the sport temporarily based on a neck injury. However, in terms of the best players right now, I think he’s the alpha of the group actually, even though Dallas Turner and Chop Robinson have more freakish athletic traits, which the NFL covets. Jared Verse has lost some shine, but I think in a vacuum, if you didn’t compare him to the 2022 version of himself – which I expected to enter this past draft – he still is certainly part of this conversation. I’ll also throw in Illinois DT “Johnny” Newton here, who provides the type of quick-twitch ability you see from the elite interior pass-rushers around the league, along with being a consistent disruptor in the run game.
At cornerback, Kool-Aid McKinstry seems to be the one name locked in for the top-ten, considering how good his tape is, while having the size measurables any defensive coordinator dreams of. Kalen King unfortunately has regressed a little bit from the guy I loved watching in the summer, who would just attack downhill as the ball comes out or he was asked to support the run. Cooper DeJean was announced to miss the rest of Iowa’s season last week unfortunately, but he’ll be an intriguing name, with the size to play safety and legit punt return skills, but also quality film covering receivers inside and out. And then the name to really keep an eye on is Nate Wiggins, who is a super-twitched-up, aggressive player, who showed off his long speed on an unbelievable chase-down tackle this past Saturday against North Carolina, where he turned what should’ve been a touchdown into a fumble and touchback for his Tigers. I could see like another 12 corners come off the board within the top-100 picks ultimately, however.
I don’t have a linebacker or safety as part of this discussion currently. Two Clemson linebackers – Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter – are in contention for later first-round picks, plus I think a guy that could have a meteoric rise at that spot is Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper, as he blows up the combine and people go back to his tape, since not many people are yet really paying attention to an underperforming Aggies program. On the back-end, Miami’s Kamren Kinchens and Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin bring the combination of range, football IQ, and ball-skills that the NFL is looking for at the position to address early, but I’d so somewhere in the 20s feels more appropriate in general and we haven’t seen teams really target those guys earlier than that in recent years.
Let’s now get to the specific landing spots and where all these teams may be looking to go!
Picks 1-16:
1. Chicago Bears – via Carolina Panthers (1-9)
After “earning” the first overall pick last year and trading it to the Panthers, who ultimately used it on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, the Bears will once again be the defining team and the ones who control the upcoming draft the most. Carolina certainly didn’t expect to hand over the same draft capital plus D.J. Moore ultimately for moving up eight spots in April, but being a game below Arizona with zero compared to two wins in-conference, this likely appears to be the case. Even if the Panthers were to win a couple more games, Chicago has all the ammo to make an offer to who’d move ahead of them that those guys almost can’t refuse. What’ll be interesting with them is if Justin Fields can show them enough down the stretch that his recent improvements make them double-guess if they should go quarterback again and depending on how high their own selection will ultimately be, if they target another blue-chip player – something they desperately need – or if another team wants to come up and send even more draft capital for next year to Chicago. Considering they just traded a high second-round pick for a player on his rookie contract for the second year in a row with Montez Sweat, they may prefer the former. Yet, here’s a world in which they end up with Marvin Harrison Jr., and Olu Fashanu and receive an extra pick via trade, if Fields shows out the final seven weeks here. That would obviously be insane. However, if they love Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, that may not matter. And you have to question if this coaching staff will be trusted with making those enormous decisions, particularly if both selections remain in the top-four or -five, and even Ryan Poles has made some questionable decisions during his short stint as general manager.
2. Arizona Cardinals (2-9)
While the Cardinals were the odds-on favorites to pick first overall before the season started, this is starting to very much feel like the 2019 Dolphins or 2021 Lions, where they play hard for that coaching staff and possibly win a couple of games down the stretch, but still end up with a high pick of their own and excess draft capital, to where they can turn things around fairly quickly. So this could be a true win-win situation. How exactly they approach this stage of the rebuild under GM Monti Ossenfort and HC Jonathan Gannon is still very much in the air though. The biggest determining factor of course is their decision at quarterback. For a while, it seemed like they were likely shopping Kyler Murray during the offseason and selecting one of the top two signal-callers. Yet, even if they looked at this as a showcase for the former number one pick from 2019 originally, with the play-making abilities he’s shown in just his first two games back from the torn ACL, he may play well enough to take Arizona out of the Caleb-Drake sweepstakes and get this regime on board with building around Kyler anyway. They’ve proven they’re not the worst roster in the league, but you could argue the only other cornerstone players they have are most recent first-rounder Paris Johnson Jr. at offensive tackle and safety Budda Baker. What really dictates that decision is the fact that Murray will carry an average cap hit of 49 million dollars, while they’re at a stage of their life cycle where they still need to hit on a lot of moves before they can compete with the 49ers and the rest of the NFC West. With book-ends offensively under contract, Marquise Brown being a free agent, may tilt them towards Marvin Harrison Jr. if they have their choice of non-QBs.
3. New England Patriots (2-8)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I was pretty much right there with the sportsbooks, who had the Patriots win total set at 7.5, when I predicted they’d go 8-9. While I saw the shortcomings this offense may have again, I thought under Bill O’Brien they would at least not be abysmal, while the defense had a chance to end up as a top-five unit in the NFL. However, the lack of difference-making skill-position players, injuries on the O-line, still rather uninspiring offensive designs, and Mac Jones at times actively rebelling against the offense it seems like, has that unit ranked 29th in EPA per play. The defense has been marked by injury, but even special teams have been a major problem, with only one team below them in DVOA. I never thought we’d actually get here, but at this point it’s fair to ask if Bill Belichick will even be the one in control of this entire organization for a 25th season. So we may not have a clue who ultimately makes those decisions in New England. With that being said, as it pertains to what they’ll do with this selection, it may not make a difference. I’m not ready to totally rule out Mac Jones being a franchise quarterback, because I wouldn’t say a ton has changed about the guy who was an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist, other than how he’s dealt with his frustrations on and off the field over the last two years. Of course, if New England does end up with a top-two pick, it’s a no-brainer to take one of the top-tier QBs. If they stick here at three though, going Marvin Harrison Jr. is an even bigger lay-up. He adds the dynamism this WR group desperately needs, but Bill – and any other coach – will love his hard-working mentality and attention to detail as a route-runner.
4. Chicago Bears (3-8)
See the paragraph at number one overall.
5. New York Giants (3-8)
The biggest movers of this past week were the Giants, who “dropped” down three spots in terms of draft order with their win at Washington, while the teams now ahead of them all either lost or had a bye week. As fun as it probably was for New Yorkers to see the lovable Tommy DeVito hit a couple of deep bombs to beat a divisional rival, this could end up having massive effects on what their future as a franchise looks like. Of course, they did lock up quarterback Daniel Jones on a four-year, 160-million-dollar contract – which I and many others already questioned at the time – but if they ended up owning the second pick in the draft, I think they would’ve been willing to worst case eat a 22.2-million dead cap hit after the 2024 season and build around Williams/Maye. While we haven’t seen much of left tackle Andrew Thomas this season, I believe between him and DT Dexter Lawrence, they have a legit All-Pro level player on each side of the ball, while Kayvon Thibodeaux is really coming on and they could still revisit a potential extension for Saquon Barkley, who is playing the RB position as well as he arguably ever has done. Beyond that, they hope some of their recent draft picks end up turning into plus starters and there’s still a lot to like about the Daboll-Kafka-Martindale coaching trio. With all three of their wins coming against the NFC and some more winnable games on the slate – especially if the Eagles end up sitting starters in week 18 – I think they’ve taken themselves out of the QB sweepstakes. So this decision will likely come down to whether they want to take on another project, where they convert Olu Fashanu or Notre Dame’s Joe Alt from the left to the right side and move Evan Neal inside – who they so far absolutely failed at doing the same. Even if WR1 is off the board, I could see them fall in love with LSU’s Malik Nabers ability to detach vertically and create after the catch, to complement their 17 different slot receivers.
6. Tennessee Titans (3-7)
Another team that wasn’t quite expected to pick this high up – even though I personally had them going 7-10 this season – is the Titans. They actually started the season 2-2 and could’ve easily been 3-1, if not for a likely fumble return touchdown whistled dead in week one at the Saints. However, since then they’ve been outscored 144-to-96, with their only other win coming in rookie quarterback Will Levis’ spectacular debut. The excitement since that day has certainly worn off, with two touchdowns and interceptions each, following the four TD and zero INT performance. However, while I considered Levis worthy of a mid- to late-first-round pick personally rather than falling to the early second, reasonable expectations in year one were that he takes over in case the Titans fall out of playoff contention mid-way through the season and that he’ll likely struggle on. That’s in part due to some of the decision-making on his part, but even more based around the fact that they had no proven commodities along the O-line, Derrick Henry was starting to slow down a little bit and DeAndre Hopkins in year 11 was the only reliable pass-catcher on the team. And while they’ll be forced to make some tough decisions along their aging defense – which already included trading away perennial All-Pro safety Kevin Byard to Philadelphia for a bag of peanuts – that’s where I think they need to go with this selection. Tennessee’s brass was very happy about Peter Skoronski falling to them at 11th overall this past April and with his inside-out flexibility, he’ll be a corner-stone piece up front for them for a decade probably. While they could certainly go with another OT in case Joe Alt makes it to them, I think they just need a difference-maker at wide receiver and they’ll likely take the highest-drafted one since they took Corey Davis fifth overall back in 2017. So this probably comes down to LSU’s Malik Nabers or FSU’s Keon Coleman, especially considering Treylon Burks simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy and produce for them.
7. Washington Commanders (4-7)
This Washington franchise just seems to be stuck in the mud. While Ron Rivera currently still holds the title of head coach, when they traded away edge defenders Montez Sweat and Chase Young – especially with the latter seemingly just being an order to get rid of for a compensatory third-round pick – it was a clear indication that new ownership wants to bring in “their guys” this offseason and the current regime of Rivera, defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and general manager Martin Mayhew are just dead men walking. What will be interesting is how this group at the top views current OC Eric Bienemy, who has done a solid job I’d say considering the circumstances, and helped quarterback Sam Howell to at least be functional. Depending on the circumstances, I could see EB sticking around, although Howell at the very least will be competing with somebody else. And that brings us to our first conversation around the extremely tough question “Who is QB3 in this class?”. Based on consensus boards, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. are projected to go in the early 20s, while LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Oregon’s Bo Nix find themselves in the early 30s. Keep in mind – these are general rankings and don’t fully weigh positional value, although we’ve seen teams recently wait on a quarterback if they didn’t go really early. I would love to see Penix air it out to those Commander receivers, but with his injury history and certain accuracy questions, I don’t believe any of these guys are quite worthy of going this highly. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this crew wants to complete the trifecta of new GM, HC and QB, but after trading away Sweat and Young, Washington seems primed to take their top edge defenders on the board. Penn State’s Chop Robinson certainly could be a target, but if you made me bet today, this organization has an affinity for Alabama players and Dallas Turner may have the highest ceiling of the bunch.
8. Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
This is the first team that just really feels off to me being here. Once again, if I had to put money on who will ultimately win the NFC South, Atlanta would still be my pick. They already beat the two teams just below them here, their three consecutive losses have come by a combined score of 10 points despite switching back and forth between quarterbacks and they were 4-3 prior to it, despite now being tied for the third-worst turnover differential in the league (-6). Until recently, I had been pretty impressed by their defense and while the fantasy community would tell you Arthur Smith is the worst coach in the league – and I certainly disagree with some of his personnel decisions myself – I’m very happy to see them hand the reigns back over to second-year signal caller Desmond Ridder, because when he was in the lineup, this offense actually moved the ball pretty efficiently. What has killed them has simply been turnovers, which I hope the time on the bench will lead to him – and the team as a whole taking better care of the ball, especially in the red-zone. With that being said, he certainly hasn’t performed up to a standard that excludes the Falcons from considering taking another shot at the position, in particular if they do end up picking closer to the mid-teens and feel like the value is right. Considering how they want to run the offense, there are a few names that could give them similar positives to Ridder, with more consistency in ball-placement and avoiding turnover-worthy plays. With Jeff Okudah being just a one-year rental, Atlanta could be looking for a long-term running mate to A.J. Terrell at corner with somebody like Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry, and while they’ve been applying pressure more regularly, they could still be targeting one of those guys we’ve discussed already, who can consistently win rushing off the edge.
9. Green Bay Packers (4-6)
These Packers are kind of another team that could be ascending and at least making a run at the number seven seed in the NFC, which the Vikings currently own at 6-5. Following a calendar month filled with losses – with their bye week in-between – they’ve now sandwiched that stretch by winning two of three games. The most important piece of this has been Jordan Love re-gaining his confidence and just having a career day against the Chargers. Considering he signed that rather odd contract extension in the offseason and that they may not be in range for a quarterback of their liking, I’d say the most likely outcome is that they give him another year, pending any significant setbacks this season, and they actually give him some help when they are on the clock. The long-term status of former All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is very much in the air still. He looked like himself in the season-opener this year, but with just 13 total games played since the start of 2021, I’m just not sure if they can depend on anything from him going forward. Depending on if they believe Zach Tom can flip over to the blind-side, it may give them the option to address offensive tackle somewhere between picks eight and 18 or so. Alabama’s J.C. Latham, Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, and Georgia’s Amarius Mims all excel on the right side, but they bring different things to the table. Latham is already an advanced pass-protector who can really put edge defenders in a cage with his snatch-and-trap technique, Fuaga is a violent, mean road-grader in the run game with impressive athleticism at about 340 pounds and Mims is the most talented of the bunch, but only just returned from injury two weeks ago after missing extended and if he does declare as a true junior, he’ll do so with only 8.5 starts plus whatever playoff games he may be part of.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)
After shockingly starting the year 3-1, the Bucs have crashed down to earth, losing five of their next six – including four straight following their week four bye. This is a franchise I’m not really sure what to make of for the future. Baker Mayfield has played well enough to make this a competitive team, but this always felt more like a one-year project and if they exist in mediocrity, he’s not the guy to base anything around and it’s probably time to say goodbye from some of these well-compensated veterans. Mike Evans has played as if he’s just pissed off and trying to show he’s still one of the league’s best receivers, not enough is made of how flawless Tristan Wirfs transition to the blind-side has been up until this past Sunday at least and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. has played at an All-Pro level, constantly being around the ball. Outside of those proven commodities, what has been encouraging is seeing how quickly some of these rookie defenders have acclimated themselves – Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby are true disruptors up front and Christian Izien looks like a quality starting nickel, after I predicted him to make an impact as an undrafted free agent. Realistic expectations from this ownership group should’ve been all along that after going all-out for this window with Tom Brady, they’d be taking some time to re-group and trying to keep the band together mostly didn’t really work. With both starting linebackers and safeties becoming free agents this offseason, they’ll be addressing those positions at some point in the draft, but not if they end up picking this high. Unless GM Jason Licht is pushed by ownership to attack quarterback early on, he’s probably working with a new head coach on transitioning this roster and depending if Big Mike is part of that plan, they may look at Florida State’s Keon Coleman as a younger version of that alpha receiver or they target one of those three right tackles I just discussed.
11. New York Jets (4-6)
This is certainly not what Jets fans expected their season to look like. Of course, those dreams came crashing down early on, when the supposed savior Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles just four snaps into his time in the Big Apple. While Zach Wilson did have some positive moments during Rodgers’ absence, they have not gotten any consistent quarterback play and just announced a couple of days ago that they were making the switch to an even lesser-proven commodity in Tim Boyle. With that being said, this Jets brass still appears all-in on the possibility of having a Hall of Fame QB for another year or two and maximizing the window they have with him. Their defense is better than the numbers would indicate – as they’re being dragged down by an offense that can’t take pressure off them, putting them on the field for the fourth-longest time per game (27:38 minutes) – but they have rarely looked like a truly elite unit to me. It’ll be interesting how many pending free agents on the D-line they can bring back or how they decide to reload. Yet, for all his flaws, it’s pretty obvious that without Alijah Vera-Tucker on the O-line, Zach Wilson didn’t have a whole lot to rely on – Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are the only two difference-makers and the only QB with multiple starts who has been pressured at a higher rate (28.3%) is Daniel Jones. Optimally, you’d certainly prefer Allen Lazard be your WR3, but reports emerged this past weekend about how the Jets already approached the Raiders to reunite Rodgers with Davante Adams and will continue to be in this discussion during the offseason. So with how injury-prone the O-line has been on top of question marks we already had coming into the year, that seems at least written in pen for them already as the plan here. That’s why I’ll never be convinced that the Jets didn’t get sniped by the Steelers for Georgia OT Broderick Jones this past April.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
There’s not another more frustrating team in the NFL right now than the Chargers. They have a 52.5-million-dollar quarterback in terms of average annual value, are among the top spenders overall and have a coaching staff in place for year three, while having replaced the one squeaky wheel calling plays on offense. Yet they’re only two games above 0.500 over the past three seasons, not cracking the top-20 in scoring defense in any of those and their rushing success has decreased in each of them, now down to 31st overall. You can blame a lot of factors in why they consistently underperform, but the two biggest points – Brandon Staley being one of the worst late-game managers across the league and their big-ticket names simply not living up to the billing – outside of Herbert. In particular, you can look at a defense with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and J.C. Jackson – who didn’t even play a full season for them of his original four-year deal – combining for a 53.5-million-dollar cap hit this year and yet outside of a random six-sack performance from Mack, simply haven’t made enough big plays. We’ll have to see how many of those guys they’re going to part ways with, as the Staley era probably comes to an end, unless we see a massive turnaround here. You’d obviously like to see the Chargers be able to run the ball more effectively, but as long as Mike Williams was healthy, they were mostly lighting up teams with their offense. That’s where drafting Jordan Addison or Zay Flowers over Quentin Johnston this past April, coming off a brutal drop that probably cost them a win this past Sunday at Green Bay, would be massive right now. With Gerald Everett about to be off the books, I’d love to see Herbo throw to Georgia TE Brock Bowers though, to finally give them a reliable YAC threat. Yet, I’d think with Asante Samuel Jr. as the only corner of note under contract past this season, that’s clearly a position to target in a pretty strong class. Getting another DB with versatility like Iowa’s Cooper DeJean could make a lot of sense and so would finally addressing the interior D-line early on in the draft with Illinois’ Jer’Zhan Newton.
13. Los Angeles Rams (4-6)
On one hand, the Rams are fairly close to where they were expected to be prior to the season and if for just slightly better late-game management by the Seahawks, they could pick be picking six spots higher than this right now. On the other, I can envision a path where they make it to 9-8 and compete for that final Wildcard spot as I look through their remaining schedule. On paper, looking at this roster, you saw a quarterback coming off yet another significant back injury, one proven pass-catcher, an offensive line that surrendered 59 sacks last season (third-most in the NFL), and a defense that consisted of Aaron Donald and zero other players drafted within the top-75 in those respective years. However, with the emergence of rookies like Puka Nacua and Byron Young, Matt Stafford playing like a borderline elite quarterback when his thumb isn’t bothering him and play-callers on both sides of the ball in Sean McVay and Raheem Morris elevated the individual pieces at hand, they have the ability to challenge pretty much any team in the league. So L.A. is in a position, where assuming Stafford comes back for another year, they can see if a promising young QB falls to them somewhere on day two and focus on getting the best player available in the first round. Preferably that would be on the defensive side of the ball, where they can’t rely on Ahkello Witherspoon to be responsible with nearly a bottom-ten passer rating (69.4) among corners after being a liability on the perimeter for the majority of his first five seasons in the league. I just mentioned Cooper DeJean for the other L.A. team, but someone like Clemson’s Nate Wiggins could become Raheem Morris’ new version of Jalen Ramsey, as a long, twitchy guy they can stick to the boundary and structure their coverages around him.
14. Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)
The vibes around the Silver and Black have been significantly better since they fired the combination of Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler, naming Antonio Pierce interim head coach. Following a 3-5 start, they annihilated the Giants, beat the Jets in a close game, and had four offensive drives to potentially tie up the Dolphins in a 20-13 loss this past Sunday, with Miami expected to blow them out in their first game off the bye week. Having said that, I was somewhat confused about where the Raiders saw themselves coming into the season already. While it took a while to get them in-house, they brought back the reigning rusher leader in Josh Jacobs, have a star veteran receiver in Davante Adams, one of the elite defensive players in the game Maxx Crosby and all they did during the offseason was sign more veterans to fill out the rest of the roster. Yet, then they turned around and put this supposedly ready-to-compete team in the hands of Jimmy G – which unsurprisingly turned out horribly, after a couple of solid weeks early on, when they were able to mostly operate on schedule. They didn’t make any reinforcements to an O-line that had massive issues in pass-protections in 2022 and outside of seventh overall pick Tyree Wilson – who has a combined 1.5 sacks and TFLs up to this point – Marcus Epps was the only defensive addition of note. We’ve since heard Antonio Pierce describe linebacker Robert Spillane as “the guy they want to center things around” and he’s played exceptionally well, but while the defense has performed above expectations, DC Patrick Graham is making the best of the pieces he has. I’d say if one of those three offensive tackles I mentioned after Fashanu and Alt is available here, that’s definitely worth consideration as a replacement for Thayer Munford on the right side. Otherwise, a play-wrecker on the interior like Jer’Zhan Newton or their top corner on the board – which may very well be the feisty Kalen King from Penn State, if they keep this staff in place – sound like logical alternatives.
The rest of the analysis can be found here!
15. Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
16. Denver Broncos (5-5)
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The Minnesota Vikings went 13-4 last year, winning some of the craziest games late across the NFL. This season has been a true rollercoaster, starting off with thre straight Ls and losing star players to injury, but somehow they're up to a 6-4 record now and right in the thick of things of a murky NFC.
Let's break down what the insertion of quarterback Joshua Dobbs has meant and how Brian Flores is starting to turn around the defense!
I could only post the first 15 minutes. You can check out the full video here!
(Yes, the mods allowed me to link my stuff.)
https://reddit.com/link/17wpzkl/video/u7b5269b0p0c1/player
Not sure why you're getting down-voted - those are valid points.
I'd say in terms of weaponry, it's pretty even, because it's almost a mirror image in terms of a reliable tight-end but otherwise role players at the WR position, who have been highly inconsistent. Either way, one doesn't really stand above the other.
I can point to two legitimately bad games played by Mahomes, which I can't say for Lamar. How he's clowned three of the premier defenses coming into those matchups - the Browns, Lions and Seahawks - making tremendous individiual plays in all of them has been special. The raw passing numbers are not as high up for Lamar, but that's more based on him playing as well early, that he's been able to sit out multiple fourth quarters.
As for CMC, he is a major component of the passing game and even when he's not involved in the pattern, the advantageous looks they get on early downs in particular, because opponents have to honor the run game makes a big difference. I'd also argue that the success rate and EPA would be higher if they didn't blow out most opponents early on and were trying to grind away games.
But yeah, to me there's a pretty clear trio at the top and I think you can make case for either one of them.
Same idea as Geno again. I'm just really starting to hate this award. Why not introduce something like "Most Improved Player" like the NBA hands out every year?
"Coming back" from sitting on the bench just doesn't make any sense to me and that shouldn't be the spirit of the award.
So who is the MVP in your eyes? Raw yardage and touchdown stats don't mean anything to me without context. When Lamar is so phenomenal that his team blows out opponents and he's sitting out fourth quarters rather than amassing numbers in catch-up mode, why would we count that against him?
At this point, I wouldn't change the award itself, because of the history of the award. Rather making OPOY exclusively non-QB or introducing something like "Most Outstanding Player" for the top performer overall would make sense.
While the 17-game schedule for each team has thrown off where exactly the mid-way point of the NFL season is, we are through nine of 18 total weeks and we’ve played exactly half of the 272 contests (136). So at this point, it’s time to summarize what has happened here a little bit and hand out all the major awards as if the season ended today.
I’ll once again break down the top three candidates through half of 2023, making my case for each of them, based on watching the tape and looking at the numbers, along with reflecting a little bit on what I predicted just before we kicked off the year. A quick note on that – I could have literally used the cover photo from back then.
Let’s get into it:
Most Valuable Player:
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Lamar Jackson
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Patrick Mahomes
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Tua Tagovailoa
As I proclaimed after seeing the Ravens destroy the Seahawks 37-3 this past Sunday, they are the best team in the NFL right now. We’ll get to the defense a couple of categories from now, but Lamar Jackson is playing the quarterback position at a significantly higher level than he even did during his MVP campaign back in 2019. Accounting for 14 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions sounds pretty good, but those numbers aren’t even close to encapsulating what he’s meant to this team. Prior to this past Sunday, the Browns, Lions and Seahawks were all top-ten defenses in terms of EPA per play – with Cleveland still at number one. Baltimore outscored those three opponents 103-12 and Lamar didn’t even play a full fourth quarter, if you combine the playing time across those three fourth quarters. And I can point to three or four plays in each of those that I’m not sure another QB in the league could’ve made. The Todd Monken offense is running smoothly now, but they certainly needed some time to get there and Lamar navigated them through some tough times, only to not get chances to finish drives as a passer early on and boost his stats. Individually, he leads the league with a 71.5% completion percentage, he’s tied for fourth in yards per attempt (7.7 YPA) and he’s tied for third among ALL players – behind only Jalen Hurts and Christian McCaffrey – in first downs picked up as a runner (32) despite being 31st in attempts. The Ravens could/should really be the only undefeated team right now – and the two losses aren’t on Lamar in the grand scheme of things. Against the Colts, a pass over the middle should have resulted in them setting up a game-winning field goal in overtime, but a blatant pass interference call was missed, and against the Steelers, his receivers dropped eight(!) passes, which directly took three touchdowns off the board basically.
I believe there’s a steep fall from Lamar to the rest of the pack right now. I could think of a couple of skill-position players worthy of consideration, but understanding that this is a quarterback award and treating the Offensive Player of the Year as a separate category for non-QBs, I’m going to stick with that position here. While the Ravens may ultimately snatch it away from them, the 7-2 Chiefs currently own the number one seed in the AFC and while it hasn’t been perfect, Patrick Mahomes has still played at a high level when needed. The story for Kansas City really has been the defense, which is allowing the second-fewest points per game (15.9 PPG), but their quarterback has performed better than his numbers would indicate and has been able to navigate the offense through some murky waters. I would admit that Mahomes had two legitimately bad games – at the Jets and at the Broncos – in which he threw one touchdown compared to four of his eight interceptions. However, his receivers have dropped four more passes (23) than any other group in the league. And looking at their two losses against the Broncos and back in the season-opener against the Lions (when they lost 21:20 without Travis Kelce), he should have had a perfectly-placed 26-yard touchdown to Skyy Moore and a third-down conversion on a crosser to Kadarius Toney, which instead turned into a pick-six on his resume. If those two passes alone are caught, they probably at least win one of those contests. I think the offense definitely feels the loss of former OC Eric Bienemy to some degree and even Mahomes’ one reliable pass-catcher Travis Kelce has been banged up at times. And yet, the Chiefs QB ranks third in EPA per play and two areas he really separates himself in – he easily has the best pressure-to-sack conversion rate (14.6%) and despite their infuriating tendency of getting jet sweeps stuffed on third downs, the Chiefs are fifth in conversion percentage on that down (45.5%), with Mahomes’ ten yards per scramble and 17 first downs as a rusher being a major factor.
That brings us to number three and you can’t feel great about this coming off a season-low 14 points scored by the Dolphins this past Sunday in Germany, even if it came against the Chiefs’ excellent defense. People wanted to eviscerate me three weeks ago, for having Tua as my number seven overall quarterback in the league and tiered him with the “great system guys”. Since then, the offense scored 10 points at Philadelphia and then just had that disappointing performance vs. Kansas City, in which they were shut out in the first half. That 70-burger they put on the Broncos back in week three feels like ages ago and it still pumps up their stats, but he did sit out the entire fourth quarter that day and I’m not going to act like this attack hasn’t been a fireworks show for most of the year. My whole point back when I put together that QB index was that Tua executes that offense at an extremely high level, but when defenses have the edge schematically on certain days and he’s asked to elevate his surroundings, there are some limitations. He still deserves a lot of credit for running the show at such an extremely high level. Miami remains number one in yards and points per drive and game each, as well as yards per play (7.1 YPP). Tagovailoa himself ranks first in passing TDs (19), passer rating (106.4) and second in yards per attempt (8.5 YPA), despite having the shortest time-to-throw (2.38 seconds). His ability to alter arm slots to get the ball out on time, manipulate second-level defenders with his eyes and attack windows in coverage are as good as it gets. Yet, on top of that, he’s improved his passing outside the numbers and created more off-script, extending plays and delivering big throws off a new or not a clean platform altogether. The Dolphins and their signal-caller have to prove they can defeat true contenders, but head coach Mike McDaniel is continuing to evolve an explosive scheme and Tua is cashing in on the opportunities he’s given.
Honorable mentions: Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen & Jalen Hurts
(Non-QB) Offensive Player of the Year:
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Christian McCaffrey
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A.J. Brown
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Tyreek Hill
As always, I treat the OPOY award as “who has been the best/most impactful non-quarterback on the offensive side of the ball”, and we have some of the better candidates I can remember in a while. I do CMC has a little bit of separation however and because he plays on a team without a marquee name at quarterback – although it’s insane how people have gone from treating Brock Purdy like Tom Brady to questioning in the matter of just a couple of weeks – he actually has an outside shot at ultimately being among the MVP finalists. The 49ers have lost some shine after losing three straight following their 5-0 start, but they had the ball with the chance to win in two of those, including what should’ve been a game-winning field goal at Cleveland, and McCaffrey has been the driving force of that offense, which ranks third in both EPA per play (0.139) and success rate (50.7). Individually, only Tyreek Hill is averaging more yards from scrimmage per game (118.0 YPG) despite an average depth of target of 0.7 compared to Cheetah’s 10.2 on a league-leading 97 targets. CMC is tied for number one with 13 total touchdowns, he’s gained more total first downs than anybody (56) he has nearly 100 scrimmage yards more than any other RB despite already having had his bye week, and he is number in rushing yards after contact (2.2 YPA) among guys with 100+ touches. So he’s getting massive volume (NFL-high 21.1 touches per game), playing at least 85% of offensive snaps in every one-score game they’ve played other than when he got hurt against the Browns, yet his efficiency is still up there with the very best. He’s a very decisive decision-maker, hits creases at full speed and runs as hard as anybody, while in the passing game he changes the complexity of how defenses have to approach the 49ers, since they can legitimately flex him out wide and attack matchups that way.
Number two here was extremely tough to decide between and it’s pretty much a tie between these two superstar receivers, but I gave A.J. Brown the slight nod because he’s delivered his best when needed most a little more than Tyreek Hill. The Eagles own the best record in the NFL at 8-1 and I don’t think there’s really a question about who their best player has been. This past Sunday ended Brown’s insane streak of six straight games with more than 125 receiving yards, yet he still delivered five first downs and the touchdown that put his team up 28-17 against the Cowboys. Once again, he ranks behind only Cheetah with 1005 receiving yards and 46 first downs on five fewer targets (92) and as part of an offense that averages 1.6 yards fewer per play than the Dolphins. While quarterback Jalen Hurts remains a nightmare for defenses to deal with as a scrambler and he’s shown incredible toughness this season, his efficiency has certainly declined from a year ago. Despite that, Brown ranks in yards per route run (3.2 YRR) and is only one off the top mark in catches of 20+ yards (18). Jalen relies heavily on his number one target, as Brown has the highest share of the team’s air yardage (48.6%), leads the league with a 50%(!) target rate against true man-coverage and has accounted for 41.9% of their conversions through the air on third downs. Whether it’s snatching the ball away from defenders draped all over him at the catch point or shrugging off would-be-tacklers once the ball is in his hands, A.J. has been an absolute beast. He has hauled in 63.2% of his contested targets and among the 15 receivers with 50+ catches, he’s averaging nearly a full yard more above expectation after the catch (+2.1 YAC), according to Next Gen Stats.
Last but definitely not least here is Tyreek Hill, who does certainly have a case to be made for being the favorite right now. As I mentioned with Tua already, the Dolphins offense is number one across all the major categories, with 45 yards more per game (435.2 YPG), 0.8 yards more per play (8.1) and 3.7 points more per game (31.7 PPG) than the next-closest team. And as well as Tua has run the show, Tyreek is the straw that stirs the drink. Not only does he lead the league in yards (1076) and touchdowns (eight) through the air, but even though he’s tied for the most targets (97), he’s also incredibly efficient in regard to when he’s out in the pattern – he averages nearly a full yard more per route run than any other pass-catcher this season (4.30) and the mark that lead the league last season – also set by Hill. With the way Mike McDaniel allows him to get running starts and off motion and work out stacks, he puts defenses in a bind constantly, even though he regularly ends up running off coverage and helping create green grass for his teammates. Yet, if defenses just isolate him one time on the backside, he’ll run by corners in just a couple of steps, to punish single-high looks. Among the 15 receivers with 50+ catches so far, Tyreek ranks second in yards per target (11.1 YPT) and number one with 6.1 yards after the catch on average. Last season, we saw the Dolphins rely on hitting windows they created with their route spacing, but there wasn’t a ton of YAC. They got back to hitting Cheetah on the run and he’s killing angles as well as breaking angles yet again. The two reasons he’s “only” at number three is his contested-catch rate going down to just 25.0% and in Miami’s three losses, opponents were able to hold him in check largely, averaging just under 70 yards and only scoring once total against the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs.
Honorable mentions: Travis Etienne & Stefon Diggs
Defensive Player of the Year:
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Myles Garrett
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Roquan Smith
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T.J. Watt
This is obviously still my personal opinion and you can feel free to disagree with it, but being able to put the exact same names here at numbers one and two as I had in my full-season predictions, after being told I was completely off, is pretty satisfying. Back then I also realized – inconceivably for me – that the general public doesn’t consider Myles Garrett in that elite tier with names like Micah Parsons (thanks to playing for the biggest brand in the NFL), Nick Bosa or T.J. Watt (due to their well-regarded family name). The crazy part about that is he’s right there with Watt for the best mark ever in sacks per game (0.91). So I’m happy to see him finally get the national recognition he deserves, leading the way for the number one defense in yards per game (by 28 yards – 234.8 YPG), in terms of DVOA (-32.2%), EPA per play (-0.240) and success rate allowed (33.0%). They’ve done so despite facing three of the top-10 offenses by DVOA and success rate. DC Jim Schwartz deserves a lot of credit for how he’s deploying the pieces at hand, where it’s really about how tightly they contest receivers on the back-end combined with their rush getting home, but Flash Garrett is like the queen on the chess board for them. When he’s lined up on the edge, you have to slide protection that way or provide chip help, which ends up creating one-on-ones for his teammates, yet then he’s an absolute menace standing up over the interior line, where he’s practicing his cross-over before putting blockers into catch-up mode instantly by winning against one half of the man. His combination of power, length, flexibility and fluidity to create favorable angles and finish his rushes is second to none. Myles is just half a sack (9.5) and one QB hit (18) off the top marks in the league, and while he’s currently “only” tied for eighth in total pressures (39), if you go by pressures per pass-rush snap, he actually has the second-highest success rate among guys with 200+ such opportunities (18.0%), despite being double-teamed at the highest rate for anybody at the position (31.0%).
I realize it’s pretty unlikely to see an off-ball linebacker win this award with the gaudy numbers pass-rushers put up in today’s aerial-oriented style of play, but Roquan Smith is the most integral piece on arguably the best defenses in the NFL right now. So while the standard for the voting process is different than league MVP, I believe it should be treated at least somewhat similarly and we’ve evolved as a football-watching community to a point, where we can look beyond the individual numbers. Through nine games, the 2023 Ravens defense is allowing a touchdown on only 8.7% of opposing drives. Since 2000 (as far back as TruMediaSports has data), only one defense has allowed opponents to score touchdowns at a lower rate of their drives (8.2%) – the 2000 Ravens. And guess who won Defensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP that season? – Their incredible middle linebacker Ray Lewis. In his second season back in Baltimore, DC Mike Macdonald has turned himself into truly one of the elite play-callers on that side of the ball, in terms of taking away the staples of opposing offenses and then all the different looks he’ll throw at opponents on third downs. He has a bunch of unique players at hand, giving new life to the careers of aging veterans and putting lesser-known names on the map. However, for this system to work the way he does, he needs this incredibly smart rangy player in the middle of it all. Smith shows a tremendous understanding for spacing and how opponents want to attack them through the air, regularly occupying a body in protection after being mugged, then flying underneath routes in order to make quarterbacks come off them, before racing up and making a drive-ending stop. While he doesn’t have the same backfield production as running mate Patrick Queen, he allows that guy to have as much success going forward by cleaning up for him, while having broken up five passes and only missed two of 87 attempted tackles (2.2%). Looking through the betting odds, Roquan is currently 101-to-1, which is unfathomable to me, in part because I believe that’s the same number he was listed at pre-season as well.
For number three, I could have gone a lot of different ways, with Micah Parsons, Josh Allen and Maxx Crosby having absolutely dominant stretches of their own in terms of edge defenders, but nobody has made more game-altering plays from that position this year than T.J. Watt. I’ll get to head coach Mike Tomlin’s mind-boggling ability to keep his team in games despite being the inferior team, but a large portion of their lackluster offense is offset by Watt and company wreaking havoc and changing the complexity of contests. And the Steelers defense overall is a definite plus, but I wouldn’t necessarily call them dominant as a group – certainly not in a tier with the Browns and Ravens for that matter – because on paper their linebackers and cornerbacks (outside of rookie Joey Porter Jr.) are actually below-average, which is which they’re allowing the eighth-highest mark in yards per play (5.5 YPP). So them being 5-3 on the season almost makes no sense by the numbers, but then you look at each of those wins – Watt scored the game-winning TD on a scoop-and-score against the Browns, he had five combined sacks and QB hits against the Raiders, whilst being in Jimmy G’s face for a couple of interceptions, he ended the Ravens’ final two drives by jumping on a loose ball and getting the game-sealing sack, he had an amazing interception that completely flipped the momentum on the opening drive of the second half against the Rams, where he perfectly read a pass concept whilst being forced to play off-ball by the opponent’s design, and then he was heating up Titans rookie Will Levis regularly this past Thursday Night. So his fingertips are all over the Steelers' wins and nobody has filled the stat sheet quite like number 90. He is tied for second in sacks (9.5) and QB hits (18), along with having forced two and recovered three fumbles (one returned for a touchdown), recording that one pick and six more passes batted down at the line. The only reason I don’t have him even higher – his pressure rate on a per-snap basis isn’t quite up there with the best. However, to be fair, he also hasn’t been set up in many positive game-script situations.
Honorable mentions: Micah Parsons, Dexter Lawrence, Josh Allen, Maxx Crosby, Fred Warner & Danielle Hunter
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
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C.J. Stroud
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Puka Nacua
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Bijan Robinson
While we’ve seen a couple of questionable choices of quarterbacks over skill-position players over the last several years – Kyler Murray over Josh Jacobs in 2019 and Dak Prescott over teammate (and the league’s leading rusher) Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 – this is far less of a QB award than you’d think initially. With that being said, while I’m not giving that position preferential treatment, me choosing Stroud here is a sign of how tremendous he’s been, when he’s competing with a guy who currently ranks fourth among all players in receiving yards. We have had bigger “rookie phenoms” in terms of the athletic skill-set, but the fact Stroud never actually looked like a guy in his first season at the game’s most difficult position is actually insane. This is obviously coming off a performance against the Buccaneers, in which he threw for a rookie-record 470 yards and five touchdowns, including the game-winner with just six seconds left. However, he’s been playing excellent all season long, ranking third in yards per pass attempt (8.1) and featuring the league’s best touchdown-to-interception ratio (14-to-1). The most impressive statistic to me however – the Texans currently are the number nine offense in both EPA per play and DVOA right now. That’s after ranking dead-last and second-to-last in those two categories last year and their running backs this season averaging just 3.1 yards per rush (3.3 as a team – 30th). And Stroud has been doing this behind what we perceived to be a below-average offensive line and throwing to a below-average receiving corp coming into the year. This team has no business sitting at .500 – and that includes a couple of field goals with time running out by their opponents. They played the first month of the season with four of their five slated starters on the O-line out, their top-three pick at corner from last year was placed on IR after week two and this past Sunday, they even needed a backup running back to jump in at kicker. I love the coaching staff in Houston, but a rookie QB isn’t supposed to cover up those kinds of holes as Stroud is doing.
As I mentioned – Puka Nacua currently is fourth league-wide in receiving yards and tied for fourth in catches, behind only Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs respectively. Among those three names, only Brown hasn’t been an All-Pro selection multiple times and all of them made the cut last year. So for this guy to come in as a fifth-rounder and produce at that type of level – being relied upon as the number one target over the first month of the season without Cooper Kupp – is truly remarkable. And his numbers would be even better if he didn’t have Brett Rypien trying to throw the ball to him the last one-and-a-half games. Prior to that, nobody had caught more passes total and only once did Puka have less than 71 receiving yards in a game. When Matt Stafford has been slinging it around for L.A., we’ve seen Nacua and Kupp co-exist, because as I verbatim outlined in my analysis of the Rams draft class, I thought the rookie could turn into head coach Sean McVay’s new version of Robert Woods. He does a lot of the stuff that guy used to for years in that offense, where he’s trusted with crack-blocks at the point of attack and is asked to insert against a linebacker in the run game, they put the ball in his hands on crossers and quick screens, but then also we’ve seen him win on the perimeter in isolated situations. His body control to adjust for the ball and then the physicality with the ball in his hands are highly impressive. And for some reason, people have this image in their head about Puka just being this smart route-runner, who eats on option routes and winning against zone coverage. The fact is, he is tied for third league-wide – with Tyreek freaking Hill – in catches of 20+ yards (16). I’d say early on the target share was a little inflated, but more importantly, only Tyreek has dropped more passes so far than this rookie (seven).
You can certainly argue for a couple of other names here to conclude the list based on the numbers they’ve put up, but I could not punish a fantastic player for his coach not allowing him to shine as much or as bright as he should. Taking positional value out of the equation, Bijan Robinson was my number two overall prospect in this past draft class and I don’t really feel any different at this point about that choice. I put together a super extensive video breakdown of why the Falcons offense would become one of the toughest units to deal with in 2023 in the offseason, but due to inconsistent quarterback play, poor red-zone play-calling, turnovers and other factors, they simply have been far off my lofty expectations. They rank 22nd or worse in DVOA, EPA per play, success rate and most importantly – points per game (18.4 PPG). My number one advice to head coach Arthur Smith would be to stop this petty back-and-forth with the media and just put the ball in the hands of his incredibly talented rookie running back. Watching Atlanta on a weekly basis, while Tyler Allgeier is a hard-nosed runner who justifies a certain role, every time he touches the ball instead of Bijan, I feel like they’re losing an immense amount of dynamism. As soon as the former Texas superstar gets it, you start holding your breath, because his initial burst, the ability to make defenders miss without any wasted movement and his skill in the open field are truly special. That is not just a metaphoric feeling – the rookie literally averages 1.8(!) yards more per carry (5.0) and he’s turning his touches into first downs at a 7% higher rate (28.2%). Bijan ranks fourth among all players with 5+ carries per week in rushing yards over expected per attempt (+1.04), according to Next Gen Stats, and he’s averaging 7.9 yards after the catch. I showed a few weeks ago how he was responsible for a couple of interceptions and he’s fumbled twice, but with his natural receiving skills and explosive, he should already be a fantasy and real-life superstar, rather than sitting at one(!) touch inside the opposing five-yard line.
Honorable mentions: De’Von Achane & Sam LaPorta
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
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Jalen Carter
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Devon Witherspoon
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Will Anderson Jr.
This Defensive Rookie of the Year race is a pretty strong one compared to past years, where we’ve had a clear-cut favorite for the majority of the season, and I’m happy to see the three names here being among the top-four of my pre-season predictions. To be fair, all of them were drafted in the top-ten back in late April, but the name at the top was actually fourth for me heading into the year, despite being my highest-ranked prospect coming in. The reason I thought Jalen Carter may not quite be able to take home the honors was that he may just not play enough on this stacked Eagles D-line – and I was right about that part, as he’s played more than 50% of snaps just twice for the year (49% on average, with one game missed), but he’s still found ways to show off his dominance with limited opportunities. Among rookie defenders, Carter is tied for second in sacks (4.0), tackles for loss (five) and QB hits (seven), despite the guys ahead of him in those categories all having played at least 116 additional snaps. Even more impressive, this guy has the highest pass-rush win rate among all interior D-linemen in the entire league at 22%, according to ESPN analytics – just ahead of All-Pros Dexter Lawrence and Aaron Donald. While the competition is certainly stronger than it was even in the SEC with Georgia, he still looks like a rolling ball of butcher knifes out there, who has overwhelmed the opposing interior for the most part, until somewhat finding his match this past week in Cowboys second-year guard Tyler Smith. Carter’s ability to knife into the backfield and provide this disruption in the run game has been on display, you rarely see him get moved off the line on combos and what’s crazy about his efficiency rushing the passer is that he’s not even close to having a fully-developed arsenal of moves, relying on the high swim – at times combined with working across the face of guards – and the bull-rush paired with grabbing cloth to free himself late.
While Carter was my top-ranked prospect in this past class, my most fun watch was Devon Witherspoon at Illinois. Seeing this guy click-and-close on routes, be able to get back in phase after losing early on, but then also fly downhill and blow up bigger ball-carriers was just awesome – and he’s continued to do so in the NFL. Obviously, his major breakout performance came back in week four on Monday Night against the Giants, when he had a 97-yard pick-six, two sacks, three QB hits and two tackles for loss. Those remain the only numbers he’s logged in those categories, sliding inside to the nickelback spot for that game. Thanks to his physicality and smarts, I really like him in that role, but after heading to Cincinnati the following week, he’s gone back to primarily lining up on the outside. With that being said, just because he doesn’t have the backfield production or intercepted any other passes, doesn’t mean he hasn’t been impactful in any way. Since missing the season-opener for Seattle, he has played every single snap for the Hawks defense, holding opponents to 28 completions for 253 yards and two touchdowns across 51 targets (54.9% completion rate), compared to his one INT and nine more passes broken up. That puts him at a passer rating responsible for of 73.4 and a yards-per-target mark of 5.0 – for reference, Sauce Gardner as an All-Pro corner and DPOY last season was at 5.3 YPT. Even coming off a 37-3 shellacking at the hands of the Ravens, Seattle ranks 11th in dropback EPA and even with Riq Woolen coming off a sensational rookie campaign himself, Witherspoon has been their most reliable player in coverage, although he needs to improve as a tackler (eight misses on 47 attempts). His ability to play inside and out, make plays in the run and pass game could pay major dividends down the road for what had been a very stingy Seattle team prior to this past Sunday.
My prediction for who would win this award before the season started was the first non-quarterback off the board, as they traded up to number three overall, in order to pick quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge defender Will Anderson Jr. back-to-back, as cornerstone pieces of their franchise on both sides of the ball. I’d say so far that has definitely worked out. Some of the casual observers may disagree about Anderson living up to the hype, when they see he’s only registered two sacks so far, but he has nine additional hits on opposing quarterbacks and looking at the ESPN Analytics data, he's actually tied for third among edge defenders with a pass-rush win rate of 27% – behind only Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. Being able to “finish” his rushes is a major part for young D-linemen to learn, but you definitely feel the impact this guy has made on the Texans defense, where they ask their edge guys to work from those wide alignments and use tilted angles to collapse the pocket from both sides, forcing quarterbacks to step up, whilst pushing the interior line backwards. That’s why Houston is tied for the fourth-fewest sacks across the NFL (17) despite being right outside the top-ten in pressure rate as a team (24.4%). In terms of the run game, he can fly down the line for quick stops when left unblocked, man-handle tight-ends near the point of attack and what I appreciated about him always at Alabama was the combination of leverage and extension he played with to set a physical edge at 240-245 pounds. He currently owns the highest run-stop win rate (39%) among EDGEs according to ESPN. Thanks to improved linebacker play and Anderson’s presence, they’re top-ten in rushing success rate (36.4%) and yards per rush (3.8 YPA), while overall having been more than respectable as a unit, despite not having their OTHER number three overall pick at corner in Derek Stingley from a year ago since week two.
Honorable mentions: Brian Branch, Tuli Tuipulotu & Byron Young
Comeback Player of the Year:
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Tua Tagovailoa
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Breece Hall
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Matthew Stafford
I’m not going to spend too much time talking about this award, because the parameters by how this is voted for simply aren’t defined properly. It basically just states “an NFL player who has shown perseverance in overcoming adversity”. We saw that last year when Geno Smith legitimately played at like a top-ten quarterback in the league by all the numbers and the eye test, but I’m not sure “coming back” from sitting on the bench should qualify him. This year, it almost seemed like a foregone conclusion that Damar Hamlin would win it, if he just stepped on an NFL field at all, yet he’s only even been active for one game so far. So now that feels a little weird.
The rest of the analysis can be found here!
Honorable mentions: Damar Hamlin
Coach of the Year:
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Mike Tomlin
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Dan Campbell
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Mike McDaniel
Right off the bat, this award typically goes to either the coach of the best team in the NFL, if it became the storyline of the season, or the guy in charge of a franchise, that significantly exceeds its pre-season expectations or has overcome adversity throughout the year. John Harbaugh certainly deserves consideration for running what I believe currently is the best all-around team in the NFL and looking at this as more of a recognition of the entire coaching staff, they’ve been outstanding, but I predicted them to win 11 games and the two things Harbaugh should have his eye on the most – special teams and fourth-down aggressiveness – they’re average in both.
The Steelers may just be the worst 5-3 team I’ve seen in my life. By now, we all know that they’ve been outgained by their opponents in all eight of their games. Of the 34 teams in NFL history that’s true for, they are the only one with a winning record, and only the Broncos – who were responsible for the most yards surrendered in any game ever, when Miami put 70 points on them – have a worse yardage differential (-790 yards) this season. It really doesn’t even make sense, especially considering in their three losses, they were defeated by a combined score of 80-to-23, yet here they sit again. I’ve already given T.J. Watt his flowers and as bad as the offense has been, Kenny Pickett has delivered with the game on the line (three game-winning drives), but the one constant for this organization for the last 17(!) years by now is the guy wearing that black cap on the sideline. Mike Tomlin just has these guys believing at all times. There have been so many times this season where the other side was clearly superior, yet Pittsburgh somehow hung around and was able to pull through in all five of their one-possession games. That toughness and belief his troops bring to the table is even more insane when your offense has to be infuriating to watch for large stretches of games, being in the bottom-three in yards and points created, with your fans openly calling for your OC to be fired whenever possible. We can argue Tomlin and the organization should have made a move at offensive coordinator and this would be over pretty quickly when I look at what Matt Canada has brought to the table, but for that environment to elevate players in high-leverage moments and for them to be able to weather the storm the way they do, with the steady presence of the guy running the show, not enough can be said.
The rest of the analysis can be found here!
Honorable mentions: Nick Sirianni, John Harbaugh, Doug Pederson & DeMeco Ryans
If you enjoyed this breakdown, please consider checking out the original piece and feel free to check out all my other video content here!
Twitter: @ halilsfbtalk
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The NFL trade deadline for 2023 has come and gone. Unfortunately, we didn’t get as much action altogether as last year, nor did we have legit superstars being moved. Most frustrating among the names everybody wanted to see with a change of scenery was Davante Adams, whose frustration in Las Vegas has continued to grow and since then the names at the top of the operation have been let go. However, we did see a few contenders make potentially crucial additions and also a couple of surprises on Halloween.
So now I want to take a look at those eight trades that went down this week, talk about the compensation and break down what those mean for both sides. I did not include Kevin Byard being shipped from Tennessee to Philadelphia for a bag of chips a week prior, because Eagles GM Howie Roseman yet again was able to acquire a veteran DB that should be a key pieces at a position of need for way under market value.
Let’s focus on the rest of the list now:
Seattle beefs up the D-line
Seahawks receive: Leonard Williams
Giants receive: 2024 second-round and 2025 fifth-round draft pick
Back on the 1st of September, I predicted that the Seahawks would win the NFC West with a 12-5 record and after somewhat shockingly losing in convincing fashion at home to the Rams on opening day – who we weren’t sure about what they were back then – their only loss since then came at Cincinnati in week six, when they had goal-to-go twice with a chance to win the game late. So with Seattle having shown the ability to out-battle anybody in the NFC, with Philly as the only team somewhat separated from the rest of the pack, they make sense as “buyers” here. They’ve won games primarily fueled by their offense or defense, won close but also created separation to their opponents. The two areas that have held them back a little at times have been the offensive and interior defensive line. Offensively, from guard to guard the film and grading would suggest they’ve been slightly below-average but not catastrophic, while both their starting tackles have missed most of the season. So while it may still take a couple of weeks, Abraham Lucas returning should salvage that right side eventually. Defensively, I already had questions coming into the year and then the expected starter at nose-tackle in Bryan Mone has yet to return from the torn ACL he suffered late last season. Therefore, Jarran Reed has been forced to kind of play out of position and some of their young guys have been on the field more than anticipated. Now adding Big Cat Williams, you bring in a stout presence, who they can line up anywhere from 2i- to 5-technique, in order to give them more flexibility with their fronts and take pressure off the guy at the nose to regularly get combo-blocked. His presence compensates to some degree for Dre’Mont Jones not being the strongest run-defender on early downs and you can put Williams at the nose and use him to free up fellow rushers on different games.
New Yorkers clearly didn’t expect the season to go the way they hoped for. The Jets have recovered from the shock of losing Aaron Rodgers on their opening series of week one, now sitting at 4-3 with hopes of their quarterback making a miraculous recovery from the torn Achilles for a potential playoff push, with him already tossing balls around pre-game. The G-Men unfortunately have dealt with a massive amount of injuries themselves, but even considering that the product on the field has been highly discouraging. Sitting at 2-6, coming off one of the ugliest offensive games of the 21st century, where they lost in devastating fashion to their cross-city rivals despite being on third quarterback Tommy DeVito, who finished the day with negative passing yards, their brass has to see that this is a lost season. Somewhat surprisingly, they didn’t move Saquon Barkley, who they were able to agree on an altered franchise-tag for one year basically during training camp, but instead they moved on from the guy with the highest cap hit on the entire team at 32.3 million dollars. The nuance to this deal, so it made sense for Seattle, was the financial compensation. New York had already paid out the majority of the money prior to this move and they agreed on taking care of 10 million dollars on top of it, leaving the Seahawks with basically 650.000 to pay what is still an impactful defender up front. So considering he is expected to net them a compensatory fourth-round pick in 2025, they Giants paid that extra cash for basically (just under) a second-round pick. Considering the long-term implications of Daniel Jones’ massive contract, having that additional shot at a fairly cheap talent is worth it from their perspective.
Atlanta tries to compensate for Grady Jarrett injury
Falcons receive: Kentavius Street and 2025 seventh-round draft pick
Eagles receive: 2024 sixth-round draft pick
The Falcons have been one of the most infuriating teams to watch this season. Diving into the tape on offense, you see them be able to move the ball pretty effectively, but then just don’t cash in on those drives. That is backed up by the numbers, where they’re at least average in success rate (42.1%) and yards per play (5.1), but bottom-ten in percentage of drives ending in points (31.9%) and turnovers (15.4%). Meanwhile, the defense had been much more consistent on a weekly basis, not having surrendered more than 24 points until this past Sunday and were tied for fourth league-wide in success rate (39.9%). So as they’re trying to finally put it together on offense and find consistent play under center, seeing the other side allow rookie QB Will Levis light them up for four touchdowns through the air and a season-high in points, is certainly disappointing. On top of that, they soon after received the news that perennially underrated interior D-lineman Grady Jarrett will miss the rest of the year with a torn ACL. Atlanta is in the bottom-three in terms of sacks (15) and tackles for loss (30), but they had been able to set a firm line of scrimmage and push the pocket pretty well. So losing the one true difference-maker along the front definitely hurts. Thinking that bringing in Kentavius Street from Philadelphia would off-set that would be an unfair expectation, but we’ve seen this guy be able to add some disruption as a rotational player. His only two years of playing a full 17 games – the final one in San Francisco and his one in New Orleans – he recorded 6.5 sacks and 11 TFLs across (56 total stops) across 869 total snaps. Adding depth at the very least makes sense for a late-round pick-swap, being tied for the NFC South lead at 4-4 currently.
For the Eagles, I’m not going to waste a lot of time on this. Considering they don’t even need 50% of snaps from one of the most productive interior D-linemen in the league in Jalen Carter and their OTHER Georgia first-round pick in Nolan Smith being third string on the depth chart, they’re still absolutely loaded up front. Street is an effective player when called upon, but he’s only averaged 11 snaps per game so far, which put him ninth in that pecking order. This gives them the ability to get someone like Smith on the field a little bit more and see if he can become more of an impact name down the stretch and they get a free pick swap basically, after signing Street for this year at 600.000 dollars. So the effects it may have on a young player getting a little more playing time and having that one extra roster spot to potentially elevate somebody from the practice squad at a position that isn’t already a massive strength, is something that could pay off regardless of any compensation.
Chicago spends another early second-rounder at a position of need
Bears receive: Montez Sweat
Commanders receive: 2024 second-round draft pick
Considering Washington proclaimed prior to this past Sunday that they would be willing to move on from one of their edge defenders at least depending on if they beat the Eagles or not and while they did keep it close yet again and I wasn’t sure they would ultimately move on from Montez Sweat and Chase Young, the shocking part to me is that the Bears would be in the market for one of them. And that is not based on Chicago’s needs, as they certainly needed help at that position, considering their ten sacks across eight games are five fewer than any other team in the league and eighth-year veteran Yannick Ngakoue, clearly on the down-swing of his career, is the biggest name they have. Sweat having 6.5 sacks and 11 QB hits by himself provides a massive upgrade over whoever they’d otherwise give snaps to. With that being said, up to this point they haven’t worked out an extension with him, since it would be just insane for them to not look at this as a long-term investment for what currently is a 2-6 team. More importantly, they did this just last year! Sure, Sweat is a substantially better player than Chase Claypool was at the time and particularly in retrospective on what a disaster his time in Chicago turned out to be. However, in principle, they once again invested an early second-rounder (currently slated to be pick 35) in a player on a rookie deal without the benefit of quality play at a low cost. The Steelers got a starting cornerback in Joey Porter Jr. out of it this past April and now Washington gets to re-set with what might end up as an equally talented prospect at a much lower cap number, since they would’ve otherwise probably let him walk anyway. I understand that Ryan Poles needs those cornerstone pieces to build the roster around, but I just don’t agree with this, when you already spent a combined 31.5 million annually on Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards and DeMarcus Walker this offseason for at least the next three years. And unless the groundwork on a new deal is already done, I just don’t like how they’re putting all the leverage in Sweat’s hands.
On Washington’s end, I was once again surprised that they ended up moving on from both their young defensive ends (Sweat and Chase Young), but this seemed like a predetermined decision, once they moved to 3-5 with their second loss to the Eagles – albeit it in another highly competitive affair until the end. New ownership clearly wants to move this franchise into a new direction and at this point it appears that it would take a miraculous turnaround in spite of moving on from a couple of promising young defenders, for Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio to stick around. There was some thought before the season that Eric Bienemy may ultimately be elevated and that may still be an option if the offense continues to show improvement and they people at the top haven’t settled on anybody becoming available. Quarterback Sam Howell has been extremely up-and-down, but the EB effect has been felt in the nation’s capital to some degree and also when you look at the decline for Kansas City’s attack. So I won’t rule that out yet, considering he was asked to elevate a former fifth-round pick at the most crucial position, even though I’d say it’s pretty unlikely. The variance on the defensive side of the ball is the area that isn’t acceptable, because even with some injuries holding them back, they’ve allowed an average of 23.9 points per game since that first of four years with the current regime – and they’re 31st in the NFL right now (28.5 PPG). Their collection of four first-round picks along the D-line prior to this week was definitely their one bright spot, but clearly they’re not on track for a contending franchise as currently constructed and they might need that extra draft capital if they want to be part of the quarterback market in this upcoming draft. I’m just worried about who they have rushing the passer off the edge now and would hope this finally gets fifth-round pick K.J. Henry (Clemson) on the field, who has yet to log a snap on defense as a rookie.
San Francisco bring in another highly-drafted freak edge rusher
49ers receive: Chase Young
Commanders receive: 2024 third-round draft pick
Since I just talked about the Commanders in extensive fashion, I thought it would make sense to go straight to the other edge defender they just shipped off. We know that 49ers GM John Lynch and company are always in the market for talented defensive linemen and in particular, their ability to bring in formerly highly-drafted guys and let D-line coach Kris Kocurek work his magic, has reaped major benefits for them. I know that Chase Young has lost some of the shine since being drafted second overall back in 2020, due to being banged up for about half of his young career, but this guy was one of my highly-graded prospects ever, he was the clear Defensive Rookie of the Year and this year he’s on pace for easily the best numbers of his career (five sacks, nine QB hits and six TFLs). Drake Jackson was bound for a breakout sophomore campaign, racking up three sacks vs. the Steelers on opening day, but has not been as effective since and with just 15 snaps per game over the past month, it appears he’s not full healthy. So while Nick Bosa is tied for a league-high 44 pressures against the belief of people just looking at sacks (which he has five of), they clearly needed to add some juice to that unit. The 49ers had already brought in Randy Gregory from Denver at the start of October for a swap of sixth- for a seventh-round pick, who they’ll only be paying 840.000 dollars for the remainder of this season and then after a 14-million-dollar cap hit in 2024, they can move from him without any type of dead cap. Now they bring in Young on similar terms, as they’ll only be paying him 560.000 dollars on the final year of his rookie deal, with Washington accounting for the rest of the money, and all it cost them in terms of team-building resources most likely is their third-round pick this next April being pushed back a year and 10-20 spots, as they’ll be a team at the end of each round, which isn’t too far off the 2025 comp pick range. So really for them it’s a home-run on all fronts.
So now I won’t dive too much into the Commanders’ side of the deal. I do understand why Montez Sweat may be worth a pick by one round higher, due to the extensive injury history of Chase Young, but you’d still think they’d be able to net a little bit more for a former second overall selection. Considering any contender could’ve offered the same compensation, Washington would have probably preferred their offer, based on the fact San Francisco made it to the NFC Championship game each of the last two years and they have a good chance of making it there again, which would move that pick back towards the end of the standard 96 selections across three rounds. That doesn’t even take into account potentially wanting to send young to the opposite conference. So I understand that there’s some urgency for this new ownership ground to quickly collect these additional resources and have the flexibility to turn around the roster fairly quickly – most likely under new guidance – but with as well as Young had played, I thought they had a chance to get a second-rounder back or at least do this deal with a team likely to select a little bit earlier.
Minnesota adds veteran QB after Kirk Cousins goes down
Vikings receive: Joshua Dobbs and 2024 seventh-round draft pick
Cardinals receive: 2024 sixth-round draft pick
We’ve reached the Vikings portion of this program and this is definitely a curious one, because we weren’t sure what exactly they were as an organization coming into each of the past two seasons. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah called this a “competitive rebuild” ahead of 2022, yet head coach Kevin O’Connell did an excellent job of leading him team to a perfect 11-0 record in one-score games and a 13-4 season overall, only to lose at home to another very surprising Wildcard team in the (9-7-1) Giants. Starting this year off 0-3 with all three losses coming by one score proved that negative regression was imminent. However, following that up by winning three of their next four (two against the Panthers and Bears, but also the 49ers and seven-point loss to the Chiefs), all of sudden gave them some hope again, especially with how murky the NFC has been outside the top-four teams. Because of that, seeing Kirk Cousins tear his Achilles this past Sunday in a 24-10 win at Green Bay was a gut-punch to the entire organization. So while detached from the situation, you’d look at this in a very pragmatic sense and let it make the decision for you, to just ride it out with what you have and put yourself in closer range for a quarterback in next year’s draft, you are currently the seven-seed and the rest of the team deserves better than just throwing fifth-round pick Jaren Hall (BYU) out there. This way you placate your offensive head coach and fanbase, for the least impactful pick-swap possible in one year. I had Joshua Dobbs at number 22 as part of my quarterback rankings a couple of weeks ago and while he’s definitely taken a step down over the past month (four TDs vs. five INTs), I probably wouldn’t drop him down too far from that. When you don’t press him to be more than he is, he can give you quality play and add an effective scrambling dimension.
For the Cardinals, this move in a vacuum may not be as meaningful as it may end up being for the Vikings, who remain in the hunt for that final Wildcard spot, compared to the 1-7 group moving on for Dobbs. However, on a larger spectrum, how the rest of Arizona’s season turns out and what their ultimate plan at the quarterback position is, could end up actually being more fascinating. Considering they only teams below .500 currently still on their schedule are the Rams and then a trip to Chicago, nobody’s expecting this team to really make noise still, even though they had at least been largely competitive so far. The interesting component here is when Kyler Murray returns and how first-year general manager Monti Ossenfort makes his decision on who they’ll build the franchise around at that spot. I believe Kyler generally is one of the most underrated signal-callers across the NFL, considering the mismanagement of the rest of the roster and the high quality of play we’ve seen from him when healthy and getting some help. Yet, with the Panthers just winning their first game of the season, Arizona is once again on pace for the first overall pick in next year’s draft, along with having the Texans selection on top of it, which currently would be number 12. So they could still choose to play another one of those fifth-rounders from this past April in Clayton Tune (Houston) and stay on schedule for USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye at the top of the class. Or even if they’re happy sticking with Kyler, at least giving him a little more time and setting yourself up to be in control of the draft, as six of eight teams between their picks right now may be in the QB market and willing to part with substantial resources – including Chicago currently with second and third overall. If they do put Kyler back out there as early as this Sunday, I’m interested in what he’d need to show them, in order for them not to potentially increase their draft capital even further and re-set the rookie QB clock. And that brings us to the one player the Vikes already traded away.
Jacksonville adds insurance to the interior O-line
Jaguars receive: Ezra Cleveland
Vikings receive: 2024 sixth-round draft pick
Based on weight that some other names have among the public, the Niners getting Chase Young for a third-round pick and a couple of these other trades may appear to be bigger “steals” but I could argue the Jags sending a sixth-rounder to Minnesota for Ezra Cleveland is the savviest move among them. The fourth-year guard out of Boise State has not been a standout performer necessarily and some fans had wanted a replacement, but he’s been above-average starter ever since being put in the lineup, which he had done for 45 straight games with the Vikings. This season he’s off to his best start, earning a 73.8 overall grade from Pro Football Focus (eighth-best among 84 qualified guards), having allowed just ten pressures and one sack across 248 pass blocking snaps. Looking at that front-five for Jacksonville, they’re pretty happy with how consistent Luke Fortner has been at center through 25 career games – which he’s started all of them – and with Cam Robinson back from suspension, Walker Little has moved inside from tackle to guard on the left side. However, otherwise they only had Tyler Shatley to back up those interior spots (as more of a designated center) and you’d like the flexibility and you’d like to be able to kick Little out to tackle, if one of those book-end goes down. Jacksonville has reportedly been looking for answers along the middle of the offensive line, as they’re currently on a five-game winning streak and have real expectations to compete for a much murkier AFC than we initially thought. So even if Cleveland doesn’t start (right now), they’re being pro-active here, to add insurance at a position group that had the potential to become a problem area. I think that was great process, to stay patient and ultimately acquire a proven asset at a fairly shallow position group.
While this wasn’t necessarily on my radar, unless the Vikings lost the game along with Kirk Cousins on Sunday and had gone into wholesale mode, this isn’t necessarily shocking on their end. They did sign veteran Dalton Risner following week two, who was actually a better player than Cleveland throughout his rookie deal but somewhat inexplicably wasn’t scooped up by anybody throughout the offseason, coming off a late-season elbow injury. So while he’s been called into action these last two weeks in place of the other starting guard Ed Ingram, I’m guessing they still want to see what they have in the second-year man and don’t look at Risner as a substantial downgrade to Cleveland on the left side, while depth may not be much of a consideration, if they’re being honest with their own expectations. For either one of those two, maybe getting a little better than a latter-half sixth-rounder would have been nice for Minnesota, but it’s pretty fair. And I wanted to quickly address the fact that Danielle Hunter wasn’t traded, after he had been one of the names discussed the most leading up to the deadline, in relation to where Minnesota may stand at this point. Even though the Kirk Cousins injury certainly hurt their expectations for the rest of the season, now being 4-4 and not being in a wholesale mode, to bring down the general feeling around the team even further now, I believe the Vikings were looking to get back at least a second-round pick plus a little extra in return. No other teams were willing to give that up for half a season of the veteran edge rusher and therefore a I deal didn’t get.
Detroit brings in a field-stretching wide receiver
Lions receive: Donovan Peoples-Jones
Browns receive: 2025 sixth-round draft pick
So while I would’ve liked general manager Brad Holmes and company to be a little more aggressive with trying to add another difference-making pass-catcher and/or edge rusher, this is very much in line with how they’ve handled their business. They’re not afraid to target what are deemed lesser-valued positions for modern standards in terms of the draft and then in terms of veterans, they rely on free agency and few trades they do make to acquire players, they typically are low-risk. Detroit has been doing this at the wide receiver position, where along with trading way up from the back of the first round of the 2022 draft to the 12th overall pick for Alabama’s Jameson Williams, they used a conditional late-round pick swap in 2015 for Denzel Mims from the Jets, who appeared like a mishandled talent, who they still be able to squeeze something out of. However, he was waived a couple of weeks prior to the season kickoff with an injury. Williams unfortunately has not paid off at all yet. And let’s be fair here – he was coming off a torn ACL until playing sparingly over the last six weeks of last season and he missed the first month this year due to a suspension for gambling. So he needs time to re-gain confidence and acclimate himself into the offseason, but outside of a 41- and 45-yard touchdown in each year so far, he has just five catches for 26 yards on just under 200 total snaps. So adding another long, field-stretching receiver like Peoples-Jones, who totaled well over 1400 yards over the two prior seasons, makes sense generally. As good as Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight-end Sam LaPorta have been, they lack that element on the perimeter with consistency – even if DPJ is having the worst season of his career so far – but that’s why they’re getting him at this discount. Goff is already just one behind Matthew Stafford for the league-lead in completions of 20+ yards (35).
For Cleveland, I just mentioned the regression we’ve seen by the fourth-year receiver. DPJ currently is on pace for career-worst numbers in yards per target (5.4), yards after catch on average (2.8) and passer rating when targeted (38.4). His ability to win down the field in isolated situations and create explosives on run-after-catch plays, such as him catching a crossing route, has defined his early career. With the Browns transitioning to more of a spread-out approach offensively, where they don’t take as many shots off play-action, that skill-set doesn’t really fit as much within the offense, never mind the sub-par quarterback play for the team as a whole. So this is a bit of a misfit toy in general and you like how he projects with Detroit a lot better. Along with that, Cleveland has quietly put together one of the deeper receiving corps in the league and this allows them to get more of those young guys out there. DPJ actually led the Browns in snap share, as they have three guys playing 78% of snaps or more currently. Marquise Goodwin, David Bell and Cedric Tillman all sit between an eight and 15% share. While Goodwin offers that speed component in a smaller frame, Tillman is the one I’m really interested in seeing more of. Considering the construction of the roster, seeing the Browns use their first draft pick in April (74th) on him was certainly surprisingly, but it felt more like taking the best player available and them being intrigued with the idea of a more prototypical big outside receiver. He had some really nice moments in preseason and I think would add a more physical presence as a larger part of their rotation, being able to win over the middle or using his body at the catch-point. So with Peoples-Jones not being a great fit and therefore part of their future, at least getting something back before you get a couple of other guys more involved, makes some sense.
Buffalo adds a veteran presence to a wounded secondary
Bills receive: Rasul Douglas and 2024 fifth-round draft pick
Packers receive: 2024 third-round draft pick
Finally, my favorite fit in terms of a team addressing a clear area of weakness, I really like what Buffalo did here. This defense has not been the same over the past month as the unit we saw destroy the Raiders and Commanders before holding the Dolphins two touchdowns below their season average (20 points). And the main reason for that have been season-ending injuries for Tre’Davious White (torn Achilles), Matt Milano (broken leg) and DaQuan Jones (torn pec). The latter of those two seem to have outside shots at making a return for a playoff run, but White unfortunately will once again not make a return for the third straight season. So the Bills desperately needed one of their young guys to step up. Dane Jackson and Christian Benford especially have performed above the level of expectations as late day-three selections, but last year’s first-rounder Kaiir Elam unfortunately has been a pretty big disappointment. While I’d say Buffalo’s coverage structures take pressure off their guys on the perimeter with how much zone they call on paper, within that, you still end up with Elam isolated on the backside with someone like Calvin Ridley when you run quarters, and he gets routed up. Rasul Douglas isn’t your traditional shutdown boundary corner, but where he excels at is keying on route patterns of closing on stuff as a high-low defender, he can move inside in case Taron Johnson misses a little bit of time, he’s good at funneling the run inside and being a reliable tackler and most importantly, he’s a play-maker, with 12 turnovers forced and two pick-sixes since the start of 2021. And looking at different trade value charts, this compensation amounts to about a fifth-round pick – so definitely below market value for a versatile starter in the secondary.
As we flip things around with the Packers, this feels like just trying to get something back in return for a team that clearly isn’t at a point where they feel like they can compete in the NFC. Sitting at 2-4 and being on a four-game losing streak, with a bye week in-between those, there just hasn’t been a whole lot to hang your hat on recently. They beat up on an overrated Bears squad in convincing fashion on opening Sunday, lost on a walk-off field goal at Atlanta and then were able to put together an impressive 18-point comeback in the fourth quarter against the Saints. I thought they had the defensive front and a couple of cover-guys to put pressure on opponents to hold up one-on-one while the offense would be built around Aaron Jones and a quarterback who deliver a few explosives down the field and as a runner. However, Jordan Love simply hasn’t been accurate enough on a consistent level, Jones hasn’t been healthy for the most part and the defense may include a couple of cornerstone pieces, but it feels like a collection of highly-drafted misfit toys under DC Joe Barry’s stubborn, antiquated scheme. Weirdly enough though, I thought Douglas was one of the few guys that made sense for what they’ve been trying to do and has at least played up to the three-year, 21-million-dollar extension from March last year. So this must have been more about trying to get something back for a player, who has somewhat openly been talking about how the offense and general operation has been a bit of a mess, from what I can tell. Either way, it feels like they’ll be making a switch in terms of play-calling duties defensively at least after the season. I thought Chicago’s Jaylon Johnson would’ve made a lot of sense for Buffalo initially, but getting Douglas from their division-rivals instead gets them more bang for their buck.
If you enjoyed this breakdown, please consider checking out the original piece and feel free to check out all my other video content here!
Twitter: @ halilsfbtalk
Instagram: @ halilsrealfootballtalk
The early Sunday slate of week seven was highlighted by a highly-anticipated inter-conference matchup between the Lions and Ravens. However, Baltimore took control right now and turned this into a 38-6 beatdown.
I broke down what exactly they did on both sides of the ball. I could only post half the video unfortuntaley (time and file size). So if you want to watch the rest, you can so do here!
https://reddit.com/link/17gubar/video/mkn8njuqqiwb1/player
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I don't disagree! And I hope he will be!