this post was submitted on 25 Nov 2023
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Machine Learning
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I mean, everyone is just sorta ignoring the fact that no ML technique has been shown to do anything more than just mimic statistical aspects of the training set. Is statistical mimicry AGI? On some performance benchmarks, it appears better statistical mimicry does approach capabilities we associate with AGI.
I personally am quite suspicious that the best lever to pull is just giving it more parameters. Our own brains have such complicated neural/psychological circuitry for executive function, long and short term memory, types I and II thinking, "internal" dialog and visual models, and more importantly, the ability to few-shot learn the logical underpinnings of an example set. Without a fundamental change in how we train NNs or even our conception of effective NNs to begin with, we're not going to see the paradigm shift everyone's been waiting for.
Actually, the claim that "all ML models are doing is statistics" has proven to be a fallacy that dominated the field of AI for a long time.
See this video for instance, where Ilya (probably the #1 AI researcher in the world currently) explains how GPT is much more than statistics, it is more akin to "compression" and that can lead to intelligence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI4Tpi48DlA (4.30 - 7.30)