this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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I mean isn’t it somewhat late to join?
Not as an independent. And an independent would actually have one of the better chances in history of winning in 2024. Half of Republican voters would jump at any non-Democrat besides Trump. And Biden won 2020 largely on the back of being "not Trump", but isn't terribly popular with moderates or even many Democrats.
A solid middle of the road candidate could actually do it in 2024. No idea of Cuban is that guy, but being a household name helps a ton.
Don't think he really has a lane to run in 2024. He's not pulling much of Trump's core support, and while he might pull disaffected Republicans, primary polling suggests that's around 36% of Republican voters (assuming everyone but Trump and Ramaswamy voters are disaffected). Recent Polling from Gallup suggests that around 46.8% of the country consider themselves Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents, while about 45.5% of the country consider themselves Democrats or Democratic-leaning Independents.
So the disaffected Republicans give Cuban 16.8% of the voters, true Independents (those that expressed a lean towards neither the Democrats nor Republicans) give him another 6.75%. That gives him 23.55% of the voters, while Trump is sitting on 29.95% of the voters. That means to win the popular vote, he'd need to siphon off another 11% of voters from Biden. As Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents are 45.5% of voters, that means he'd have to take 24% of the support from an incumbent president. Do you see a quarter of Biden voters abandoning him in a 3 way race that Trump is threatening to win? And given the polarization within many states, I don't think Cuban could win any but the most purple states.
If you look at a party lean index, and give Cuban every state that's within 5 points (excluding Florida because it's Trump's home state, but including Texas because it's Cuban's home state), he comes up with 179 electoral votes. Not sure I see a path for the remaining 91 electoral votes. If the election goes to the House, I do not see any path for Cuban to win the presidency.