this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2024
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Politics
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I don't want to discount the findings too harshly, because I believe that democrats have a ton of issues with their voters in general and can only go on promising everything but delivering nothing for so long before people wisen up, but I do want to just gently remind everyone how accurate polling was in the 2016 and 2020 election cycles and its general decline among the population as a way to understand how people vote. Polling groups have not adapted to the times and frequently demand far too much out of a population which is overburdened and simply not interested in engaging with pollsters through archaic mediums and conventional means of identifying who is eligible to be polled are not applicable to a modern populace.
Polling has become a mess, mainly because we can no longer rely on landlines for generating unbiased samples. Most attempts at fixing this issue, such as online polling, have their own massive biases. So it's incredibly difficult to figure out what's real and what's not. And no, doing a hundred bad polls or increasing the sample size won't fix it. Bias in the data can only be fixed by figuring out a way of creating truly fair samples.
Did you read the article? It looks at voting data.
Very cherry-picked voting data. Rural Texas and New York after a huge scandal are very underwhelming examples.