this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2024
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[–] mwguy@infosec.pub 6 points 8 months ago (10 children)

That's a fair point and it should be taken into account. But at the same time, this is Nate Silver. He's essentially the pre-eminent expert on polling, polling errors, and best practices in that regard. And what's more; when you imagine the different potential political factions amongst the African American community (a practice Dems try not to do); it's not hard to see why 2016 to today could have soured them significantly. Some examples from my family, friends, and extended family:

  • As much as Republicans aren't great on "black issues" under Trump Black Labor saw unprecedented gains in employment and income (until COVID hit). And a cohort of black voters are economic voters first.
  • The "vaccine mandate" talk from the left didn't go over well in Southern Communities where the oldest (like my grandparents) remember. And Oftentimes knew people that were part of things like Tuskegee (which was also one of many experiments like this. It's just that the exceptional journalistic work and integrity of several academics and journalists brought this one instance to light).
  • Student Loan debt affects people from lower and middle-class families a lot. The promise and almost delivery of student loan relief and then the total rug pull of it and sellout of the Biden Administration towards it soured lots of people.
  • It's not like Africans don't know what Alzheimer's is. And Biden's refusal to even address the concerns impact black voters as much as they do whites.
  • For the BLM cohort; running the guy who designed and championed the three strikes policy that has put so many blacks in jail for life unnecessarily and then running a prosecutor who knowingly tried to keep innocent black people in jail to maintain appearances doesn't sit right. Especially when the other guy made it a habit to pardon wrongly or likely wrongly convicted men and women of color and did so at an exceptional clip.
  • Inflation is super high and FED interest rates are 59 times higher than they were when Biden was elected. For "low information" voters that's just Biden's fault. But even for "high information" voters they realize that Trump was willing to bully the FED to keep those numbers down. "Stagflation" killed Carter it can kill Biden too.

It's really not at all surprising that the current Dem ticket isn't going to win black voters at 90% clips.

[–] sqgl@beehaw.org 6 points 8 months ago (4 children)

Student Loan debt affects people from lower and middle-class families a lot. The promise and almost delivery of student loan relief and then the total rug pull of it and sellout of the Biden Administration towards it soured lots of people..

Almost delivery? Total rug pull?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/21/fact-sheet-president-biden-cancels-student-debt-for-more-than-150000-student-loan-borrowers-ahead-of-schedule/

[–] Truck_kun@beehaw.org 5 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Biden's biggest problems are:

-he is old (which, yeah, obviously), and the media (both sides) does nothing but talk about how Biden is old. - but starting with the State of the Union, he is showing that he is mentally still there, and plenty capable of holding office.

-The media just loves Trump. he gets views, so they won't stop talking about him. They don't give Trump the same kind of scrutiny they do any other politician.

-Biden has a Gaza problem - if Gaza wasn't an active issue, he'd probably be doing a lot better. He has spent so long ensuring Israel receives the support it needs to continue to exist in the middle east, and they have a place after the Holocaust, that he just can't adjust to the horrible crimes their government are committing. I understand he will never not supply their Iron Dome and other defensive measures, but that doesn't mean he cant restrict Israeli weapon sales to just that.

-he doesn't talk about his accomplishments in office, and the media doesn't cover it, so the general populace doesn't think he has done anything. He has done plenty - in the general election campaign, they are starting to advertise these things.

People still don't know that he continued backing Rail workers helped get them a deal, they just remember he kept the supply chain open.

Many student loans have been forgiven. He can't do forgiveness as broadly as he'd like, the GOP is fighting him on that, but he continues to fight for it and is getting more. My own mother is in her 60s and has another 10+ years on her student loan - but I am hopeful his student loan forgiveness will reach her - she has applied and right now it is just a waiting game (information over the past year has been very confusing regarding what to do and when).

I only ever hear the media talking about the negative aspects of Biden, so of course he is going to lose supporters. I just happen to follow political news more closely than the average person, so I am aware of the positive things he has done as well. Hopefully he gets the message out; Trump was awful, but he isn't losing support - people staying home and skipping this vote because Biden isn't ideal, is how we get Trump back in office.

[–] mwguy@infosec.pub 4 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Many student loans have been forgiven. He can't do forgiveness as broadly as he'd like, the GOP is fighting him on that, but he continues to fight for it and is getting more. My own mother is in her 60s and has another 10+ years on her student loan - but I am hopeful his student loan forgiveness will reach her - she has applied and right now it is just a waiting game (information over the past year has been very confusing regarding what to do and when).

Biden negotiated away his ability to suspend student loan payments to get a temporary budget passed. He didn't have to do that. He could have kept payments suspended until the forgiveness hit. He chose not to prioritize it.

[–] Truck_kun@beehaw.org 6 points 8 months ago (1 children)

We are talking about two very different things.

The reply I responded to was about student debt forgiveness. Forgiveness does not equal payment suspension.

Yes, his post was threaded a couple down from yours, but neither my post, nor the post I responded to mentioned payment suspension. Your reply should probably be up a post or two.

Trump and republicans of course want the people to pay every penny, plus interest of student debt. Biden kept loan payment suspensions up for years, which is far longer than I expected. Biden is getting debt forgiveness to the people, and a large number of them, and it is making a difference. I don't think anyone thought he would accomplish a fraction of what he has gotten done; I can only imagine what he can get done if people give the Dems a majority in the Senate and House.

With the republicans trying to shutdown the government for their political circus, Biden has done a good job of picking his battles, and making them look like fools. It's clear the current Republican party is incapable of governing.

[–] sqgl@beehaw.org 2 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

That was OP both you and I have been commenting with. To be fair, OP used the phrase "loan relief", nevertheless "total rug pull" is clearly untrue and OP did not acknowledge it as hyperbole.

What OP ought to understand is that Biden didn't bargain it away to appease Mickey Mouse, he was appeasing Republicans who were holding the budget to ransom (yet again) as you pointed out.

Or maybe OP isn't discussing in good faith to start with? Maybe "this is what my friends say" is really just cover for an attempt to spread misinformation?

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