this post was submitted on 03 Aug 2024
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All these news about in-development technologies in the renewable energy sector are causing real fatigue for me. This would be great news if it was commercialy viable, but it isn't. It never is. If all the news about amazing new battery technologies were viable, we'd have 10x the capacity by now with cells that have zero fire risk and last 10 million cycles. But it's always laboratory conditions.
Gonna be honest, I kinda stopped paying attention to news like this, it's a flood of theoretical advancements. I care about it when I can buy it.
That being said, obviosuly the state-of-the-art technology has made significant advancements in the last 10 years, but it's been incremental (it always is) and nowhere near the numbers that are thrown around in reports and articles like this.
In the last 30 years, batteries have gotten about 10 times more powerful at a tenth the size for about 1% of the cost. Every advance that got us to this point was just "stuck in the lab" prior to its release. And if you don't think incremental change can be significant, after hearing those numbers I provided above, perhaps you should read about compound interest.
Also, if you don't want to be let down by news of developments at the lab stage, which certainly don't always become viable, why are you reading posts in a technology community? That seems self-destructive.
We're saying the same thing with different words. Your prespective it's "its's so great", mine is "it's gotten slowly better". I'm sick and tired of reading about some irrelevant technological breakthrough with +10% solar efficiency or +30% battery density in some laboratory every 2 weeks. Actual change comes in (very) low single digit percentages for efficency of panels per year (or similar for battery density). Not once in the last 30 years did we have an actual jump for stuff you can buy (within a short timeframe) that comes close to the hyperbole in these reports. The advancement in price can probably be attributed to scale of production most of all though. Who would buy
Cancer treatments, longevity treatments, regrowing teeth, every fucking mouse trial that has been talked about for the last 20 years, CRISPR saving the world.
And then you hear about immune therapy cancer treatments, using CRISPR and our extensive knowledge of cancer from decades of research. Or our better diagnostics for cancer leading to better cancer treatment outcomes due to early detection. Or regrowing teeth! (In certain circumstances.) Or, yes, new solar panels with 34% efficiency...for 3 months, at which time they're only slightly better than existing panels. Or two new ways to make blue pigment in the last two DECADES.
Science is hard, and all of it is standing on the shoulders of giants. And when getting money to do that research, which is another way of saying "trying things you think might work in the hopes of something new", relies on convincing people that this one idea could be the next big thing, hype is built into the system. So, again, if you don't want hype, look at new products. If you want to hear about what researchers are working on, don't expect that everything is going to come to fruition. Even the failed ideas help build the foundation that future researchers will be working from.