I wonder if this helps explains why polling has been getting worse than usual since 2016. (In relation to presidential polling (midterm polling has been historically accurate).
this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2024
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This is a decent video explaining some of the background on why polling got worse from business insider. Essentially it has more to do with conservatives being underreported (they don't like talking to pollsters) then Gen Z, Millennials, or Gen Xs. Not saying that didn't play a part, but Nate Silver has talked about this as well in his Silver Bulletin.
Yes but these are definitely hypotheses. Fivethirtyeight has extensively covered it. In 2016 they covered it a lot, did a post-mortem on the election, and said the industry said they’ll fix it for next time, then in 2020 we got even worse polling errors.
I miss Nate from the fivethirtyeight days. It’s sad to see his model paywalled.
Random but if you’re a polling nerd this site is a godsend: https://swingstates.vercel.app/
its based on the 538 API, they also have a mastodon and bsky bot
This cycle a lot of polling has oversamples GOP. And they are using a new technique wherein they weight polls based on previous vote. Which is interesting I guess. Anyways, we’ll see what happens in a week.
Do people not remember how exhausting he was?