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Heat pumps twice as efficient as fossil fuel systems in cold weather, study finds
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 12 Sep 2023
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Technology
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The study isn't wrong, but it's also not right, IMO.
This doesn't seem to mention the cost of the energy, just how "efficient" it is.... which, honestly, "efficient" can imply several things, and they don't seem to clarify what (at least from my first pass of this doc).
The issue is that even if you're getting 3-4 times as much heating/cooling as you could with something else, per jule of energy potential that is put into the system (in whatever form that is), if your energy cost for that source of power is high, it's going to lose the financial argument every time.
Sure, a natural gas furnace will consume "more fuel" and produce less effective heat than a heat pump, but if you're paying 10x the cost for electricity, then you're still going to end up spending more per degree of heating than with the cheaper fuel.
Where I am, electricity is pretty cheap, but natural gas is tremendously cheaper per jule.... so we can actually pay less by using the "inefficient" fuel for our home.
I don't think the numbers are dramatically different at the end of the day, but this study seems to completely ignore the core issue that most people will be concerned with.... which is: "will this save me money?" Which is arguably the more important metric.
What's also interesting is that you have to factor in the costs and CO2 emissions of the fuel source and it's delivery method. A new building code for a county in my area was adopted which requires calculations for energy efficient HVAC systems and also CO2 emissions with those systems. Surprisingly, natural gas has less CO2 emissions associated with it, while electricity is 2.86 times as much. This is because grid electricity is mostly produced by fossil fuels, then needs to be delivered to the site but there are many losses along the way. So even if the all electric equipment is twice as efficient as the equivalent natural gas equipment, it still contributes more CO2 production. This is part of the issue with phasing out natural gas and moving to all electric in its current state. But with that is the push (and requirements) to produce energy on site and shift towards net zero energy for commercial sites, which is definitely better than using grid power from an emissions standpoint.