this post was submitted on 12 Sep 2023
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The Oxford study is really good. But I can't say the same about this article.
A COP of ~2 is not great for a heat pump, calling this a triumph is really weird. But from a journalist saying that a COP above 1 means the heat pump "creates energy", I am not sure I should have expected more.
But what's great is that this COP of 2, while bad, is not catastrophic. That's still in territory where gas boilers are more cost efficient that a heat pump, but unless you are living in a place that is consistently under -10C for several months, then a heat pump has overall lower running costs than a gas boiler. And you are starting to hit pretty northern territories with this.
What's important is also to be able to store heat during the day so that the heat pump runs at its most efficient time. But that can unfortunately coincide with the higher consumption time, so the timing needs to be adjusted properly to avoid using it during consumption peaks.
You just contradicted yourself.. what did you mean here?
Electricity is 3x the cost of gas, so unless the heat pump has the COP of 3 or above it is more expensive to run. Once you factor in the high cost of installation people aren't installing these things to save money.
It's not a contradiction if you put my whole sentence. When it is really cold, a heat pump will be more expensive than a gas boiler. But over a full winter (hence "overall"), the period where it is more efficient make up for it, especially since that when it is bad, it is not that bad.
But you are right to mention the high cost of heat pumps. I would not advise anyone to get a heat pump with a goal of saving money, the return on investment is slow and rather small.
I don't agree with generalizing that ROI is slow and small. There are too many variables here specific to each market, location, and home. Someone with an old propane or oil boiler that is already planning to buy a new AC will absolutely see massive ROI going with a heat pump. In the US, federal standards will make furnaces more expensive (condensing only soon) and heat pump costs can be heavily subsidized. I bought a new HP that was cheaper than my neighbors new AC/furnace after incentives, and my running costs will be lower.