He is in an R+5 district in Pennsylvania (PA-10). Perry won by 7.6% in 2022. Going from lean-R to tossup is certainly something
this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2024
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Perry is my rep and and PA-10 is a weird district. Definitely drawn to dilute the influence of Harrisburg as much as possible, but not really homogeneous in its suburban and rural makeup. In Cumberland county especially the vibe has always been more of the rich/educated northern republican stereotype than the toothless redneck stereotype it seems like he is trying to appeal to. On the other hand he's very popular around York in the areas where they're big fans of banning books. I would guess on average the Republicans around me are more interested in maintaining the status quo than ushering in Gilead.
I always kinda hoped/figured he'd get primaried by a more moderate candidate at some point, it's part of the reason I switched my registration, the other part being the sheer number of local government offices where Dems don't have a snowball's chance. As for the polling, that article is pay-walled but 270 to win has 2 polls with very small sample sizes. One has Perry up by 1% 6 months ago, the other has Stelson up by 9% a week ago with only around 300 responses. I want to believe, I really do, but I don't. Most of the area still went hard for Trump in 2020 (not as hard as 2016, but still pretty lopsided) and PA really, really loves incumbents. I fully expect those things to continue with it carrying Perry to victory.
The rainbow favicon for the website sure is appropriate - this certainly brightened up my day.
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https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/pennsylvania-house/house-rating-change-scott-perrys-race-moves-toss