CANADA DOESNT NEED A SMALL ~pp~
this post was submitted on 27 Apr 2025
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Just in case anyone is using 338 for info:
- the higher voter turnout so far indicates this type of model will be less accurate this election.
- the riding numbers are from provincial polling, there is no per riding polling incorporated. With increased turnout, I expect these to be less accurate.
- the model works by rating pollsters based on how well the predict past elections. That’s why increased turnout means things may swing from their forecast.
All that adds up to the potential for huge swings in votes, swings that can go either direction.
Things to watch for:
- Gen Z men’s rightward swing. Expect high turnout from this group for the Conservatives. They consume a lot of right wing media and have been struggling with tough economic conditions, so will be motivated.
- Boomer influence is waning — this is the first election they are not the largest demographic.
- Gen X are actually wealthier than boomers and are the only demographic that en masse had better economic outlooks since COVID. I don’t know if they’re going to stay the coarse with LPC or vote CPC for the tax cuts, traditionally more income swings right, especially with how Pollievre wants to change housing taxes
- Older women and Quebec are very anti-Pollievre, this might end up with a suppressed vote or a very strong vote LPC.
- Rural areas I think will swing more conservative than ever, and this might be where the forecasts swing. E.g. rural Ontario may not be as safe as thought.
TLDR be prepared for surprises today.
The problem with the Conservative vote is it's very concentrated in provinces with less seats. Winning AB/SK/MB won't matter if you lose enough seats in BC/ON/PQ, mostly ON.
I think they might pick up seats in areas like Ontario and Manitoba, even areas like Hamilton.
That’s my concern anyway.
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What a terrible song.
What, you don't like country-gospel with awkwardly rammed in mood board words?
Are the early polling votes from last week not counted already? Because they've called the election for liberals already but the total vote count is less than the 7.6 million that voted early...?
Are the early polling votes from last week not counted already
In one province they were allowed to start counting those 6 hours before polls closed. In all others, they could start 2 hours before, but it is optional and up to each riding's returning officer. So some ridings have it, some don't. CBC made it sound like they don't even know which ones have and which have not.
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There was a long line out the door of the polling place, but they were all new registrations.
No line at my poll, so I was out in the rain again in about two minutes.
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First result has come in!
God bless Labrador.
Hopefully we get a minority liberal government tonight. Mark Carney needs to taught to collaborate with others. I want him to be much more mature than Justin Trudeau ever was.
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