NFL

I was talking to a friend of mine and we got into the discussion of the importance of O-Lines. I'm of the opinion that an amazing top-5 O-Line props up nearly any QB enough to be a great QB. He's of the opinion an amazing top-5 QB helps inflate O-Line stats.

Who is right - or is it a little of both?

I went through all 32 teams and I could only confidently pick 6 teams. I also thought about a 5 year outlook and could still only come up with 11 teams. What are the teams that you guys feel confident will have the same starting QB in 2033 as they did in 2023?

My teams were

Bills Bengals Eagles Chargers Texans Jaguars Chiefs

This has been discussed before, but with the recent news regarding Belicheck being possibly fired (which blows my mind) and Josh McDaniels getting fired (again), it bears repeating.

Bill Belicheck - he's 87-97 after Tom Brady left.

Charlie Weis - he went 35-27 as the head coach of Notre Dame and 6-22 at Kansas in college after leaving NE. His one year as Florida's offensive coordinator in 2010 his offense was 102nd.

Josh McDaniels - He went 11-17 as head coach of the Broncos, and 20-33 as head coach of the Raiders after he left NE.

Bill O'Brien - He went 15-9 as Penn State's head coach, then 52-48 as Houston Texans' head coach after leaving NE. He did make it the college national championship game with Alabama in 2021 but lost to Georgia.

Romeo Crennel - yes, he's on the defensive side. However, he went 24-40 as Cleveland's head coach after leaving New England, then went 4-15 as Kansas City's head coach and 4-8 as Houston Texans' head coach.

Eric Mangini - yes, another defensive guy. However, he went 23-25 as the Jets' head coach after leaving New England and then 10-22 as the Brown's head coach.

We're on the backend of the season, /r/NFL! We have another game in Germany this week and it looks like it'll be a bargain bin game compared to last week's. The byes are fours teams this week, meaning two less games to watch. I had a great Week 9, going 12-2 and bringing me to 91-45 on the season. How did everyone else do? We only have two division games this week with four inter-conference and eight cross-conference games lined up. Let's get to it!

Byes: Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, Eagles

Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun. Best of luck!

Ken Dorsey, Bills Offensive Coordinator (Age: 42)

Ken Dorsey is in his second season coordinating the Bills’ offense after taking over for the departed Brian Daboll, and Buffalo has maintained its characteristic dominance, finishing with the 2nd-ranked total offense in 2022 and on track to finish with a top-5 total offense in 2023. Prior to his promotion to coordinator, Dorsey spent three seasons as Josh Allen’s quarterbacks coach, playing a major role in Allen’s development from an inconsistent starter to a dominant force in the league. Before joining the Bills, Dorsey was Cam Newton’s quarterbacks coach in Carolina for five seasons, including his MVP 2015 season, and he played for five seasons as a backup quarterback.

Jim Harbaugh, University of Michigan Head Coach (Age: 60)

Jim Harbaugh is in his ninth season as head coach at Michigan, and it might be his best, as the Wolverines are currently 9-0 and have averaged over 40 points per game on offense. Harbaugh has turned Michigan from a middling team in the Big Ten to a national powerhouse, producing star NFL talent such as Rashan Gary and Aidan Hutchinson as well as starting NFL offensive linemen including Michael Onwenu and Graham Glasgow. Prior to becoming a head coach at Michigan, Harbaugh coached the 49ers for four years to a 44-19-1 record with a Super Bowl run, and he engineered a successful turnaround as Stanford’s head coach from 2007 to 2010. Harbaugh played quarterback for 14 seasons in the NFL, and his brother John Harbaugh is currently in his sixteenth season as head coach of the Ravens.

Ben Johnson, Lions Offensive Coordinator (Age: 37)

Ben Johnson is in his second season as the Lions’ offensive coordinator and the turnaround has been swift, as the Lions went from a bottom-tier offense and a 3-13-1 record the year before Johnson took over to a top-5 total offense in 2022 and a similarly-impressive performance in 2023. Quarterback Jared Goff is performing at the most efficient clip of his career after being cast aside with the Rams, and players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell have emerged as two of the top players under 25 at their positions. Prior to taking over as offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson served as TJ Hockenson’s position coach for two seasons, and he played backup quarterback for the UNC Tar Heels for four seasons while earning his Bachelor of Science in Mathematics and Computer Science.

Dan Quinn, Cowboys Defensive Coordinator (Age: 53)

Dan Quinn is in his third season coordinating the Cowboys’ defense, and that unit has improved every season under his watch. The Cowboys are on track to finish with the 3rd-ranked total defense in 2023, and under Quinn’s watch, Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs have emerged as two of the most dominant young defenders in the NFL. Prior to joining the Cowboys, Dan Quinn was the head coach of the Falcons for five seasons, finishing with a 43-42 record and a Super Bowl appearance. Before Atlanta, Quinn coordinated the Seahawks’ to back-to-back top-ranked total defensive outputs in 2013 and 2014 under head coach Pete Carroll, and he played four seasons at Division III Salisbury State as a defensive lineman.

Jim Schwartz, Browns Defensive Coordinator (Age: 57)

Jim Schwartz is in his first season as the Browns’ defensive coordinator, and his performance so far has been stellar, as the unit went from around league average in 2022 to a team capable of stifling powerhouse offenses like San Francisco and Cincinnati’s in 2023. Overall, the Browns are on track to finish with the top-ranked total defense in 2023, with career years from Myles Garrett and Martin Emerson. Prior to joining the Browns, Schwartz coordinated the Super Bowl-winning 2017 Philadelphia Eagles’ defense, and he served as the Lions’ head coach from 2009 to 2013, bringing them out of the depths of their infamous 0-16 season in 2008 and to relevancy with a 29-51 total record.

Frank Smith, Dolphins Offensive Coordinator (Age: 42)

Frank Smith is in his second season as an offensive coordinator under Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins have transformed into an AFC powerhouse, as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the unquestioned top receiving duo in the NFL and Tua Tagovailoa is in the running to win MVP this season. Overall, the Dolphins are on track to finish with the top-ranked total offense in 2023 on Smith’s watch after finishing in the bottom-10 just two years ago in 2021. Prior to joining the Dolphins, Frank Smith served as Rashawn Slater’s offensive line coach in 2021, and he was the tight end coach for the Raiders from 2018 to 2020, overseeing a Pro Bowl season from Jared Cook and taking part in the development of Darren Waller.

Bobby Slowik, Texans Offensive Coordinator (Age: 36)

Bobby Slowik is in his first season coordinating the Texans’ offense, and the offense is drastically outperforming expectations. The Texans currently have a 4-4 record, and quarterback CJ Stroud is the runaway betting favorite to win offensive rookie of the year. Prior to joining the Texans, Bobby Slowik spent four seasons on Kyle Shanahan’s offensive staff, helping in the development of skill-position talent like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Brock Purdy and was seen as Kyle Shanahan’s top offensive assistant following Mike McDaniel’s departure. Before San Francisco, Slowik spent two years as an analyst at PFF, and he played wide receiver for the Michigan Tech Huskies for three seasons.

Jeff Ulbrich, Jets Defensive Coordinator (Age: 46)

Jeff Ulbrich is in his third season as a defensive coordinator under Robert Saleh and the Jets have made an incredible transformation under his watch, going from the worst-ranked total defense in the league in 2021 to the fourth-ranked total defense in 2022 and a unit capable of going toe-to-toe with Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia in 2023. Jeff Ulbrich has been instrumental in the development of Deion Jones and Quincy Williams, two modern-style linebackers drafted in the middle rounds, into top players at their position. Jeff Ulbrich started his coaching career with the Seahawks in 2010 under Pete Carroll, and he played ten seasons in the NFL as a linebacker for the 49ers.

Honorable Mentions: Eagles OC Brian Johnson, Ravens OC Todd Monken, Bengals DC Lou Anarumo, Ravens DC Mike MacDonald

With QBs that have retired in the last 5 years, there are some interesting HOF debates that I see coming up. Right now the sure-fire HOF guys are Brady, Brees, and Rodgers when he retires. The next tier, however, is a lot more interesting. You have Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Rivers who are all very close. What's interesting is that according to Pro Football Reference's HOF Monitor, they all have fairly similar scores even though they have different resumes. Ryan has the MVP/All-Pro 1 season which is pretty much required unless you have 2 Super Bowls. Ben doesn't have a crazy MVP season, but he does have those 2 Super Bowls and 17 good years. Then Rivers has some crazy counting stats. I think that Ryan and Roethlisberger have a slight edge over Rivers but it is very hard to separate the 3. So my question is do we think any of them make it? If they do it opens up the debate for a lot of players in the future. Also, how do we think the HOF committee weighs Rings/MVPS/All-Pro teams? The media is always so focused on the rings but looking at the resumes of HOF QBs there are a lot more without rings than there are without All-Pro seasons.

Edit: Here is the PFR Monitor. The average HOF QB has a score of 108. Ryan has a score of 106, Ben has a score of 100, and Rivers is at 98.

Players who were either a flash in the pan or suddenly disappeared from the NFL.

Had this discussion with a buddy of mine, would like your thoughts

Over the past few weeks, I've looked at the Chiefs offensive and defensive efficiencies and compared them to the rest of the league. A comment in one of them (or maybe a different post altogether - it's hard to keep them straight lol) brought up something about offense being down across the league and wondering how the team stacked up to teams in years past. So I got curious. Like I said, this was initially done for the Chiefs subreddit, so the years are obviously built around Pat's time as a starter, but I thought y'all might be interested to see it, too:

Team Tiers 2018 - 2023

As for the top 50 over the past 6 seasons:

If y'all have any questions, comments, concerns, etc., feel free to hit me up. Happy to answer whatever I can!