this post was submitted on 02 Jul 2026
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Right, but what % of people are currently using/demanding inference right now?
Do you expect that % to change between now and 2030?
Unless you expect demand to decrease, I don't really see how the pricing of the hardware will decrease.
Let's say the Pets.com of the AI world ends up going bankrupt and their RAM hits the market. Do you expect that the demand for that RAM will be negligible such that pricing returns to earlier levels?
Your predictive model relies on companies that have hardware going out of business and then other people buying up that hardware, but isn't accounting for the levels of demand that the market will have for that secondhand hardware even if it ends up existing from failed firms.
Unless the demand shifts, the more likely scenario is that companies going out of business will be able to sell off their RAM at higher prices than they bought it at.
There'd need to be a significant inference memory reduction advance (possible) coupled with stagnating or reduced inference demand (unlikely) to see prices come back down.
Oh lordy, after the bankruptcies there are going to be creditors fighting each other in court to be paid back in ram.