Canada

wind projects were planned before Carney, the only difference I am aware of is that he’s promised these projects more federal dollars and loosening regulations to try to speed those things along.

Naw. Nothing had been officially planned though, because of the obvious benefits, these projects have had numerous working groups etc. But, there's a difference between talking about something and doing it (try just talking about going to the gym instead of going.)

Direct air carbon capture is vaporware. Literally no proven scale-able methods exist.

I'm not sure what the words "largest in the world" means to you but...

This is the sort of tech the world will need to be able to adopt if we're ever going to get a comprehensive CBAM or entice our recalcitrant Southern neighbours to go low carbon. Or consider say, Guyana, Nigeria or even Venezuala, all of which are developing nations investing heavily in their oil industries. The way we're going to be able to come to a compromise with them is exactly this sort of technology.

Carney removed the EV mandate from domestic manufacturers

Almost like how they were removed across the continent... We don't have any Canadian only manufacturers, so it was a pretty nonsensical plan after that happened.

and the only reason the tariffs were dropped was because China responded with counter tariffs on canola.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. Trudeau instituted a 100% tarrif on Chinese EVs. China retaliated. But the net result is that Carney undid a bad climate policy of Trudeau's.

. In fifteen years when we have an oil pipeline and China has monopolized the EV and battery market, will we admit that we fucked up?

To your larger point, this is a weird binary choice. Again, we'll have a pipeline but we should also have a large national electric grid, we're aiming to more than double our clean energy production etc. AND, with a little luck, we'll have done it without an angry Conservative party tearing things apart. (Witness the trump administration paying millions to get out of wind power deals seemingly out of spite.)

You might actually read the electrification strategy , it's relatively well done and accessible. If you're more into pictures, figure 4 kind of demonstrates the entire idea.