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Pacing the Frontier: A statement from 1,132 employees of frontier AI companies
(www.pacingthefrontier.com)
this post was submitted on 28 Jul 2026
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How much more effective have the large models become for you over the last three years? Do you think development might come to a halt in China, for example, if US providers were indeed to stop developing or releasing them?
I think they’ve hit the point of diminishing returns and want to frame it as “we’d better stop before we all die”. That is, incremental improvement is all they’re getting from throwing exponentially increasing compute at these things.
So have they been getting better and better?
Yes, but less and less every time. Hence, point of diminishing returns. No amount of space data centers will fix that.
Interestingly, China doesn’t need this computing power, yet Kimi has now unveiled a competitive model all the same. I wonder how this will pan out?