this post was submitted on 22 Nov 2023
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Community to discuss about Llama, the family of large language models created by Meta AI.
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According to https://openai.com/research/gpt-4 they were able to predict GPT4 performance while still training it, so this is contradiction to this tweet.
Predicting the loss is very different from predicting real world abilities, they are able to top the former, not the latter.
Predicting the future loss once you’re already 10% into training is fairly trivial. Predicting the actual abilities though is not.