this post was submitted on 12 Jun 2023
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Technology
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I’m expecting the API change to happen exactly as planned. As a result all 3rd party apps will die by the end of this month, and the user count will take a severe hit. Many essential mod tools will stop working, so those who actually found the default app tolerable, will get to see all subs go downhill since they aren’t really being moderated anymore. As a result, the user count will continue to decline in the following months as people come to terms with Reddit sucking harder than before. Oh, but then it gets even worse when the spam bots and official ads start taking over every sub. Most likely the next year is going to be very rough in terms of user count.
Unlike other social media sites, where people stick around because of family and friends, at reddit-like sites, people stick around for the content and discussion. Once the content gets taken over by spam-bots, it's over.
As far as I’m concerned, Reddit just died today. It’s game over now. Time to start over somewhere else.
Judging by the amount of activity on here versus even yesterday, I suspect you are right.
Just came from reddit after 12 years. Deleted all my comments and then my account.
Hoping Lemmy can continue to grow and doesn't grow stale and stagnate. I'm really digging the whole Fediverse thing. Deleted my Twitter after Elon bought it and joined a Mastodon instance as well.
If we can realize this trend of decentralized social networks it would be huge.
Personally, I believe that keeping the social media platforms federated is the way to go in the long term.
Honestly, this seems like the better way to go. Back in the myspace days, we probably should have gone down this route instead of jumping ship to facebook. It would have been really cool to see how things would have turned out if it had been federated between universities from the get-go
Still learning, but as far as I understand, that's one part of the beauty of it. If Lemmy goes bad for whatever reasons, switching to another part of the fediverse is a much smoother transition than to/from reddit or any other monolithic service. It might be possible to keep your account, or to keep some content.
I didn't reddit will go away for a while. It's almost too big to fail. The large reddit run subs are still live and active. Users who don't sub to any subs that went dark may not even know anything happened. I have to imagine reddit knew they would lose users of 3rd party apps so it likely isn't a large portion of where they make money. I think there will probably be a decline in content for a short time, then we will see new subs emerge with people who don't care about the API lock down, ads, Chinese investors, bots, and reposts.
Yep. My guess is that there’s going to be so much karma farming bots and reposts, that it’s going to be absolutely wild.
It's already happening in the subs that are moderated by the admins, like r/programming. The comment sections are filled with replies generated by ChatGPT. It's so blatant.
I can't believe that they didn't do at least some research on how many people use 3rd party apps and account for those losses. The question is really how many will leave vs how many will just switch to the official app. I suspect most will just switch. It's sad really. Hopefully Infinity for Reddit (and other 3rd party apps) will support Lemmy. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
I think they did do research and third party app users make up a small enough portion of their user base that losing them is okay to Reddit.
Keep in mind how popular Reddit is -- for the most part the people left will be content with the karma bots reposting memes for the thirtieth time and there's always going to be somebody racing to be the first to post some news to a related subreddit.
I doubt it'll affect their bottom line too much and in a week it'll be back to business as usual for most subreddits.
Sadly, I think you are right about that.