Eric Flores, a former federal prosecutor and Army National Guard infantry captain, was one of the Republican Party’s prized recruits in this year’s midterm elections. With help from a redrawn congressional map in Texas, he seemed primed to dislodge longtime Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in a region that swung toward Donald Trump in the last presidential election.
Now he’s one of several candidates locked in a tougher race than originally envisioned as Republican-run states heeded Trump’s call to begin an unusual round of redistricting to help retain control of the U.S. House.
Republicans hoped to pick up as many as nine seats between Texas and Florida. However, even though the districts were redrawn to make them easier to win, the party remains weighed down by dissatisfaction with Trump, the economy, the war with Iran and the president’s deportation agenda.
The political landscape remains competitive enough that Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Texas on Wednesday, where he’ll appear with Flores, and then visit Florida on Thursday.
House Democrats’ national campaign chair, Rep. Suzan DelBene, recently circulated through Florida districts that Republicans were hoping to claim for themselves.
“Republicans arrogantly thought they were going to redistrict seats to pick up more,” DelBene said in an interview during her trip. “Instead, what they have is people across the state souring on the Republican agenda.”
Mike Marinella, House Republicans’ campaign spokesman, said the party can still capitalize this year “with a more favorable map, historic fundraising and spending advantages, stronger candidates and a common-sense agenda.”
House seats are up for grabs in Texas
Republicans won 25 of Texas’ 38 seats in the U.S. House as Trump returned to power two years ago. Partially using that election as a baseline, the redrawn map was intended to help Republicans win up to 30 seats.
Key to this plan was the Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Latino region on the southern tip of Texas, which had shifted toward Trump.
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If the 2024 patterns held this would be a great move for Republicans. The problem for them is that every indication is showing this will be a 2010 level swing, which will exacerbatethe the extent of the swing.