this post was submitted on 25 Nov 2023
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Machine Learning
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The plateau may be close, and GPT5 may not be that huge step forward everyone expects, but this implies that GPT5 will not change architecture, which is highly unlikely. GPT5 is at least 2-3 years away, and the recent rumors about Q* show that research in AI is actively looking elsewhere to boost capabilities. I will be utterly surprised if GPT5 will use the same architecture if GPT4 and if it will actually be a minor step forward - I give it 5% probably to Bill's prediction to be accurate.
I liked this Q* review/speculation.
https://youtu.be/ARf0WyFau0A?si=9Y19DzMI2puKHWRA
According to this you can get a 30x improvement by (what seems to my ignorant self) careful prompting. Ask for stepwise logic, discard sus answers and combine best answers to get a glimpse of a much better trained model.
Yes I watched the same exact video yesterday. I feel we are still at the feet of the mountain in terms of what's next in AI, plateau is still not in sight.
I hate to be a conspiracy-theory inventer, but with Microsoft trying to headhunt the entire staff of OpenAI, Bill Gates's pronouncements regarding plateaus should be discarded out of hand.