Similar to Mastodon's spikes last year, it seems. Anyways, there is data to think about. Source
this post was submitted on 06 Aug 2023
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Also, this graph does not take into account kbin which is essentially the same kind of software as lemmy but tracked seperately. Better data can be found here: https://fedidb.org/current-events/threadiverse
Also, instance hopping and users registering on multiple instances before picking only one/being active on only once may be an explanation.
Also worth noting is Lemmy only counts posts/comments as "active users". Lurkers who only read and up/downvote aren't counted.
In this case, I have a theory. I remember a month ago people were posting a lot on Reddit and the !reddit@lemmy.ml community was extremely active. It was like group therapy for refugees. But now the new reality is setting in and people are actually having real and meaningful conversations, which means more lurkers.
So it doesn't mean that active users are down per se, it's just that it's stabilised because people are mostly over Reddit.
Absolutely, and also keep in mind that many who were lurkers on Reddit and came over here maybe made one or two comments immediately saying something like "Happy to be on Lemmy!" and then went back to lurking here and haven't commented since. They would have counted as monthly active users for July, but not August.