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Heh, I'm gonna assume that will be when they have the billion$ Google require for the "service."
Well in that case it cannot replace SMS entirely until it's completely opened up so that absolutely anybody can use it. Either that or the more terrible alternative is that they are going to not open it up so that other apps can use it and literally kill every other SMS messenger in existence. Except for Google Messages and whatever Samsung uses
I'd rather they didn't open it... It's crap anyway, and I refuse to use it for those people who won't move away from SMS.
If they successfully kill SMS though enough people will stop using SMS that there's a very high chance the carriers won't support it any longer either. And that means you would not be able to send or receive text messages on an Android phone without Google messages.
I can send and receive messages a thousand ways to Sunday. SMS is just one way.
Also, SMS isn't dying in the US anytime soon. First, it's just using an extant component in the cell management frames. These are always being transmitted anyway. Second, there's a massive infrastructure in place which these companies are amortizing, fourth, the data gathering they get from it.
Then there's organizations that use SMS for sending notifications, reminders, etc - you expect them to spend money to switch from a current working system to something else?
Then there's end-users who are used to it, and are using different SMS apps - you're going to tell them to use RCS they have to give up features in the apps they've paid for. Nevermind people resist change like there's no tomorrow.
Plus RCS is terribly problematic. It fails as often, or even more often, than SMS. Just go search for RCS issues...for a protocol that supposed to replace SMS, it's garbage.
And it's still tied to a phone. Why would I want yet another messenger that's tied to my phone and all the headache that entails?
I've been using XMPP apps between my phone and computers for close to 15 years now, pretty seamlessly. And there are plenty of other cross-platform messengers that aren't dependent on a phone. What value does RCS bring compared to that?