this post was submitted on 01 May 2024
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If this were to come to pass, it would be a massive hit to the middle class. Truckers make up a HUGE part of the American middle class work force.
Also consider the economic impact to all of the gas stations and rest stops created primarily to service them, a huge amount of infrastructure exists to service truckers. That said, many could convert for autonomous service needs? I expect it to be a net loss for them also. RIP Loves?
And from a technical point of view, it's a lesser challenge than generalized self-driving because point A and B are already known for each route, so more of the route could be "hardcoded" (not actually hardcoded but I think you get the concept).
That said, I can't predict the timeline of when this would be feasible, but when it happens I expect it will cause a lot of anger from truckers.
Anyway, the jist of my comment, this will route a substantial amount of middle class wages from the truckers to the truck owners, increasing inequality even further.
This is the biggest catalyst to sway the public toward a UBI than anything else I can imagine.
But on the flip side, you also have to consider how much cheaper, well, literally everything, will be when it doesn't cost $30 an hour to move a product from one place to another?
Everything will cost so much less that Universal Basic Income wouldn't need to be anywhere near as high as it is right now to be "living wage".
Like it or not - self driving trucks are coming. We need to find a way to adjust to that. The timeline for when is probably not "when will the tech be ready" but rather "when will society be ready". I'm pretty sure if you deployed self driving trucks today, pitchforks would come out and those trucks would be blocked by civil disobedience.
Slow it down too much though, and you'll put your whole economy at a global disadvantage. A first would country could easily become a third world one by refusing to allow autonomous trucks. Autonomous trucks already exist and not just on pristine highways — for example they're used on mine sites with no roads at all — https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/bhp-autonomous-trucks-collide-at-jimblebar-iron-ore-mine-in-pilbara-ng-b881139676z
Assuming companies would pass the saving to their customers, which is usually not the case these days.