this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2024
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Exactly. These sanctions take some time to be felt. Russia is also very selective in what economic numbers it publishes. They are also artificially keeping up the exchange rate of the ruble.
These are all things that you can only keep doing for so long and it makes the crash afterwards even worse. Basically: they can pretend everything is all-right in the short term, but they have to screw themselves over in the long term to do so.
Is that a falsifiable prediction?
When is it gonna hit? If it goes beyond that period, are you gonna revise your model or insist you were only off by a year, and surely it will collapse next year?
I have zero faith in Russia, but every time someone's told me is about to collapse or overthrow the government because of sanctions, and all evidence to the contrary is fabricated, they've been wrong. There's journalists and economists who've spent 30+ years saying that about China, Cuba, and Iran, who still somehow have jobs.