this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2024
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Politics
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538's win projections aren't really based on current polling or really current events at all, that's why nothing's moved despite crazy things happening in the race. They've got some other fundamentals in the model that makes them think it's all going to revert to norm and Democrats will win, but it's just their own guesswork, not anything particularly well supported.
Assassination attempts don't correlate with wins per se. Neither does debate performance.
Popularity doesn’t even correlate with wins. There are people who will do whatever they can to prevent Trump from being elected, there are people who will do whatever they can to prevent the radical liberal cabal from being elected, and there are those who won’t vote (for one of a multitude of reasons). Everyone else is statistically insignificant.