Canada

I hope so too. But while I was looking for an analogy with Ukraine I did go with something that's a non zero chance. First as you point out Trump has a history of giving Putin what he wants. While I'm sure the Canadian Army is very capable, I'm also sure the US is a large part of their defense plan. So that's why that matters. Then we have the fact that the Russians will not shut up about wanting to broadly settle the Arctic circle for oil. As pointed out, the US didn't just do a field exercise up there for giggles. They're showing the Russians there wouldn't be a default victory.

The settlers part is just a variation of their normal means of soft power expansion. They offer Russian passports and privileges to people in neighboring countries. No strings attached, all benefits. They do this to try and get pro Russian politicians elected and then they pull out all the stops to keep them in power. But the Arctic Circle and far north is very sparsely populated. So they don't need to convert the population. They just need to move in. The best case scenario for them is getting these areas to a referendum to secede from Greenland/Canada/US.

None of this is possible though without Trump being elected and a snap invasion of the Baltics or a "referendum" in Hungary. (Hungary and Moldova are part of why Putin wanted Ukraine on his side.) Putin needs to see how Trump reacts to a genuine Article 5 call before doing this. Because if Trump does remember he's the American president then it will be a very bad day for the Russians. And I do mean 24 hours.

So nonzero chance. But also the dumbest plausible timeline. It's far more likely Trump just gives Gazprom permission to obliterate the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska in exchange for a sign on a hotel in Moscow. (Not even ownership of the hotel, just putting his name on it)