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If we're gaming the whole scenario out, I imagine it would go something like this.
None of his current convictions are expected to come with a custodial sentence, but say he loses the election, and the more serious trials are heating up. At that point, he knows he's toast. 2028 is too late to run a fourth time; he's got no more hail marys, so he dismisses his detail completely, retreats to Florida, and sneaks away to Saudi Arabia in the middle of the night.
He's got a private jet, so getting out of the country shouldn't be a huge problem. But I think you're right that he has to set all this in motion before a guilty verdict is delivered. At that point, getting away from the secret service would be much more difficult.
Strict adherence to sentencing guidelines actually would see him jailed on his current convictions. If he isn't given some kind of imprisonment it will be because the judge was afraid of the aftermath.
The minimum sentence is a hefty fine, but the judge in that very trial already determined that fines do not discourage Trump's behavior, given the contempt punishment that he ignored, so I don't think it's going to be a slap on the wrist for him unless the judge truly is a hypocrite or a coward.
That being said, even if he gets prison for each of his felony counts, he can serve them all concurrently, a maximum of 3 years per count. So he could theoretically be out of prison right before the next election cycle with a year left to campaign for 2028, that is assuming he truly is sentenced immediately after the election in November and it's not just pushed back indefinitely due to recount horseshit or Trump crazies doing another insurrection.
But there are other trials that are far more likely to result in additional prison time, the most important two being the classified documents case and the Jan 6th case. I have faith that the justice system will eventually follow through with punishing Trump, but the system is set up to slow-walk the rich and powerful to accountability.
That's an accurate summation for my understanding as well. Things that the judge should look at when considering a minimum sentence are defendant cooperation, displays of genuine remourse, and indications that the defendant is unlikely to continue breaking the law. If the judge can find any of that, it's beyond me how.