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Locking up Trump wouldn't have kept the Republicans from winning. They'd have just found another candidate willing to say the same things.
I don't know. it would have been hard for them to change the figurehead of the cult. it also would have sent a clear "Don't do that" signal vis a vis insurrection and treason. Especially because Trump absolutely would have split the vote from jail.
fact is Trump has barely seen any consequences at all for his actions, and now he never will, and that's on democrat's and Biden's DOJ in particular. (And yes. Biden could have lit a fire under Garland if he wanted. Not doing your job is grounds for firing, even if Biden can't dictate day to day or specific courses of actions.)
One doesn’t guarantee the other. Trump had something special that nobody else seems to have. I doubt they could get that lightning in the bottle again.