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No way he didn't know what het was doing. He hesitates before he does it the first time, then when he get's a positive reaction he does it the second time. This was deliberate and from what I can see many people in the the US are underreacting to it big time.
To me, that hesitation seemed more like a pause at the end of a paragraph, and the second salute, if it was so, less confident than the first (esspecially given that he bent his arm the second time). I'm not confident it wasn't an intentional Nazi salute, but I'm also not confident it was, which is why I err on the side of caution. I believe we should assume innocence unless guilt can be proven.
That said, this is why I felt the need to include the second paragraph. We shouldn't be focused on the time Elon did something wrong with plausible deniability nor should we be particularly concerned that others aren't more upset. Our focus should instead be on the fact that he has made numerous statements and taken actions that support racism, sexism, classism, misinformation and conspiracy theories, ect. and supported others who represent these values. Our fury should be at the people who ignored these far more direct and unambiguous statements, and have continued to ignore them for over a decade.
Let me ask you something: what kind of person makes that kind of obvious faux pas on the stage at the inauguration of the President of the United States of America then doesn't try to clarify or correct people who say it was a Nazi salute?
Any normal person would be mortified, and tripping over themselves to explain themselves or apologize. I would say that his actions (or more accurately, inaction) after the gesture cements it for me that there is zero point zero percent possibility that this was not intentional.
You are a fool if you believe otherwise.
A refusal to apologize doesn't mean it was intentional originally, esspecially when trying to appeal to his Nazi friends. Elon Musk is deep enough in the far right that he knows how to do a roman salue (IE not sideways and not with a bent arm).