this post was submitted on 27 Apr 2025
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I think they might pick up seats in areas like Ontario and Manitoba, even areas like Hamilton.
That’s my concern anyway.
They did much better in ON that many thought, but they lost and Pierre lost his seat. So that's great news.
I’m personally pretty happy with the outcome overall
But yeah exactly what I was thinking would happen did.
Poll aggregators undercounted less traditional voters but did count things like older conservatives moving liberal.
I don’t think this is a “shy conservative” phenomenon, which CBC and polling companies are talking about that a lot today. it’s really a failure in models to adapt to non baseline conditions, and this was sort of a black swan election.
That became clear to me when advanced turnout was so high.
I think the future for models should be to incorporate more “causal” style models, and for pollsters to break their traditional voter demographics up more. Right now it’s not granular enough.
They talked about having higher numbers skewing the models so yeah, it'll be something that'll adjust over time. I'm quite happy with how everything turned out.