Canada

“Here’s how the play is likely to unfold in the weeks and months ahead: Carney will be elected Prime Minister on April 28 by a comfortable margin; [Alberta Premier Danielle] Smith will trigger a constitutional crisis, providing cover for Carney to strike a grand bargain that finally resolves longstanding tensions between the provinces and Ottawa; and large infrastructure permitting reform will fall into place. Protests against these developments will be surprisingly muted, and those who do take to the streets will be largely ignored by the media. The entire effort will be wrapped in a thicket of patriotism, with Trump portrayed as a threat even greater than climate change itself. References to carbon emissions will slowly fade…

In parallel, we expect Trump and Carney to swiftly strike a favorable deal on tariffs, padding the latter’s bona fides just as his political capital will be most needed.”

Heres one theory. A separation crisis allows us to displace Russian oil globally and drop energy prices, which is why Trump gave manufacturing a 250% greater tariff than oil and gas, which caused other provinces to vote for Carney en mass since they thought Pierre would side with Alberta and not do reciprocal tariffs to protect manufacturing.

Alberta takes a large hit on its energy exports to the US since it is land locked. Opening up LNG from BC and Alberta to the coast allows it to derive revenue on the global market, which should help when oil prices fall globally due to Trumps actions. The Canadian dollar tracks crude oil prices, so if we dont open up alternative export markets we will be taking a series of hefty haircut, as the US also devalues their dollar to increase domestic production.

https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/the-week-that-was