this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2023
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Boy that grocery inflation sure is sticky. Almost like the cause is located within the industry itself and not a factor being forced upon it externally.
It's almost like food is something everyone needs and has to buy no matter the cost, so there's no incentive for grocery stores to reduce their profit margins.
I suspect the prices will, ironically, allow new players to enter the market and undercut.
I have farmers in my family. They talk about the pieces they got last year (high) versus this year (much lower). In fact, it's leading to some unethical optimization problems...
Crop insurance payouts are based on last year's price. For some farmers, they would earn more this year if they sabotaged their own crops and took the insurance payout based on last year's prices.
My family rejects it, cause ethics is a thing. But I suspect some farmers will just see dollars and will artificially constrain their supply. And the rest of the farmers will have their insurance rates increase.
The problem with groceries is that the raw product is largely bought on futures contracts, so you're paying last year's price. Last year was inflated due to fertilizer issues and general concern around the Ukraine conflict. The raw product price is now down ~50% since last year, but it will take until next year to see that show up in the store.
I really wish I wasn't so jaded. I can't bring myself to believe that. Hope I'm wrong.
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but no, no greedflation here