this post was submitted on 20 Oct 2023
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For anyone who wants a non hyperbole breakdown of how Pat has been, here's my observations. First, he is a strong 4 who can guard forwards and big wings, but you don't really want him constantly chasing smaller guys around screens. He has been a good defender and has the tools to keep improving.
He is a good 3pt shooter on low volume. He can be hesitant in his shot/drive decision making, but its something he has improved on (still can be an issue). He has no handle, which is the primary reason why he can't get his own shot. He struggles to make that one dribble move to get around help defense when he has an open drive to the hoop. His touch around the rim could use a little work, but the tools are there. He's got a decent midrange shot, mostly off the dribble, that has lot of potential depending on if he can improve his handle.
Overall, he's shown enough to where I see his floor as a decent 3 and D forward. If he can keep his % high while getting up a few more attempts per game, he will at least be a good corner 3 threat. His handle is what holds him back from being a more dynamic offensive threat, and I haven't seen much to make me expect that it will get better. I do think he can at least improve his handle on drives to the basket. Last year, he improved his physicality inside by using his strength to get boards and also play a little bully ball against mismatches. He had a lot of good looks that he couldn't quite finish, but it looked promising, and I expect him to convert more of those looks.
My expected range of outcomes is:
floor: Rotation 3 and D forward that gives you good defense, corner 3s when open, some rebounding and help rim protection.
Ceiling: Solid starting forward, good defense off ball, 3 and D with an average volume of attempts on a good %, can successfully drive on closeouts, and converts inside on rebounds and mismatches.