this post was submitted on 22 Oct 2023
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My current prediction for bottom 5 in the West is....
Whichever team of the usual top 11 gets the most injuries.
Rockets: I think our roster is heavily upgraded. We're going from Silas to Udoka, KPJ/Nix to FVV/Amen, and then replacing 20/21 year old bench pieces with actual NBA vets. It's just a gigantic upgrade on all fronts. There's the chance we struggle to gel, but the signs have been promising in pre-season. One of the main reasons I have us at 12 though, is that we have no incentive to tank. We don't have our own pick, so we'll be fighting for wins all year and I think we have the depth to outlast injuries.
Spurs: They look great in pre-season and Wemby looks more NBA ready than I thought. They could easily jump up into the play-in, but they also could easily fall to 15 if Wemby misses a lot of time which is still a concern for me due to his size. I also think there's incentive for them to tank at the mid-way point in the season if they're not in the play-in spots. This is probably the last chance they have a shot at a high pick with Wemby on the roster now and it may make sense to capitalize on it.
Jazz: It's ridiculous a team with the Jazz's roster is down here, but the West is just deep this year. Main reason I have them down here is that they were 10-16 after trading Conley and they're too dependent on Lauri for scoring. A Lauri injuries could bottom them out, and I'm not confident in their PG options at the moment. I also just think Ainge secretly wants to tank to get more high tier prospects, and is just waiting for a reason to do so. If they're near the bottom at the deadline, I think they become sellers.
Blazers: They have a good 7-8 man roster, but not much after that so I think injuries could hurt this team more than most. Brogdon and Timelord are also part of the main rotation and consistently have injury issues too. I also don't trust Billups as a coach while I trust the coaches for the other three teams above them much more. I like the way the rebuild is going, but they're not in the rush and will probably look to add another top 5 pick next to Scoot which is probably the better move long term.