U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that customs duty revenues from President Donald Trump's tariffs may top $500 billion a year, with a substantial jump from July to August and likely a bigger jump in September.
Bessent told a White House Cabinet meeting that his prior estimate of a $300 billion annual tariff collection rate was too low.
"We had a substantial jump from July to August, and I think we're going to see a bigger jump from August to September," Bessent said. "So I think we could be on our way well over half a trillion, maybe towards a trillion-dollar number. This administration, your administration, has made a meaningful dent in the budget deficit."
Tariff revenue would offset the deficit increases triggered by the Republicans' tax-cut and spending bill passed this year. CBO estimated this bill would widen the deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade.
Trump's tariffs drove July U.S. customs duty collections up by nearly $21 billion from the $7 billion collected in July 2024 and about even with the $20 billion increase registered in June. Significant increases in tariff rates for nearly all trading partners kicked in on August 7.
The U.S. Treasury reported on Monday that as of August 22, the government had collected $29.6 billion in combined customs and excise taxes so far during August, matching its total for the whole month of July. As of July 22, that combined figure stood at $7.8 billion, but customs duty collections can vary from day to day.
Bessent also noted that the Congressional Budget Office's upwardly revised estimate last week of federal revenue from Trump's tariffs, forecasting that it could reduce federal deficits by $4 trillion over 10 years. "And I would expect that that number could go up from here," Bessent added.
The latest CBO estimate marks an increase from June when it forecast that revenue from new tariffs would reduce deficits by $3 trillion over 10 years.
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