this post was submitted on 02 Nov 2023
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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[–] silence7@slrpnk.net 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

What's going to determine whether what replaces conifers looks like an oak grassland or more like a Sierra version of chaparral?

[–] avephill@ecoevo.social 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

@silence7 Yeah that's a great question. We haven't done the work to model the expected movement of chaparral, oak woodland, or mixed broadleaf forest into these conifer forests, but that's definitely forthcoming. We just kind of did the inverse here, modeling where conifers were likely to recede. Generally, chaparral prefers steeper, sun exposed slopes. Wildfire frequency will also be very important. Chaparral likes fire, but has a hard time when fires are more frequent than every 30 years.

[–] avephill@ecoevo.social 2 points 1 year ago

@silence7 I think a very interesting implication of the fire-dependency of vegetation composition is that we will actually need to make some decisions about what vegetation we /want/ to see in these areas. Like the wildfire regime is heavily managed today, and these decisions impact what vegetation will be more likely to expand into these forests. So there's important choices being made, whether we fully understand the implications or not.