this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2023
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It sounds like it could be a fantastic customer for you if you can work with them to improve forecasting and establish mutually acceptable lead times. One question that comes to mind is do they actually need all of that inventory all at once, or could they take a portion of it immediately with weekly shipments thereafter until the rest is fulfilled? I don't think you're doomed, but you have some relationship building to do with this potential customer so that you can create a business arrangement that lets you ramp up and know that you'll continue to see a certain level of demand from them, especially if ramping up requires a significant investment in production capacity. Beware though, it is risky to have a single customer that brings enough business such that it gives them an unreasonable level of influence over your business. Not risky enough to not pursue the business, but something to think about and make sure is represented in your business risk management planning.
I think you're very right about building a relationship with them, and even their routine needs can be amazing for my business. The annoying part is that they will never be able to predict these kind of orders - it's dependent on events outside of their control, and when they do they're quite urgent - they wanted the whole order at once in one week... I'm trying to sell the idea that they should stockpile on my products in advance (which makes sense in my eyes) but I'm not sure that'll catch.
And overdependence could be an issue here, especially since they seem a bit fickle and work on a project-base, so I could easily just be cut off one day. Definitely requires risk management.