this post was submitted on 17 May 2026
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I also lost your link to the section on Ukraine. I'll write it here.
Regarding our conversation at the beginning of spring about what's happening.
My vision of the situation on the front is coming true so far. We were waiting for the green stuff to appear. It has, but nothing has changed at all. Russia is attacking in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with minimal success, while Ukraine is attacking westward, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and is also advancing. Russia failed to achieve a strategic initiative during the spring offensive. But the most important thing, as I mentioned earlier, is the strikes deep into Russia, which are becoming more painful with each passing month. I get the impression that Ukraine now has parity in drones. Europe is increasing drone production on its own territory. Ukraine has begun using drones with artificial intelligence. According to local residents, something similar is happening in Energodar now. Drones continue to displace traditional weapons with each passing month; very soon they will no longer be needed. War is becoming much cheaper, which is very beneficial for Ukraine. I haven't seen Zelenskyy so confident in a long time. All that's left is to wait for your forecasts by mid-summer.
Did you see a recent interview with Karaganov where he basically says that the west does not understand what nuclear deterrence is, and that his view is that Russia will eventually end up striking a NATO country, first conventionally, and then if the message doesn't get through then using a limited nuclear strike as a demonstration. It seems that's where we're headed at this point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Gd5jdl36cg
Incidentally, Mearsheimer agrees with Karaganov and also thinks that Russia has to reestablish nuclear deterrence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx7osj5gCmo
I actually got banned from Reddit for the second time for saying exactly this while replying to you. The only difference was that I was talking about a non-nuclear strike. And I added that Russia needed to carry this out as quickly as possible—otherwise, things would only get worse down the road.
As you can see for yourself, time has passed, and a simple strike is no longer enough to resolve the situation.
Karaganov is close to Putin; when he speaks, it isn't just an interview—it is a direct message to the West, delivered through Western influencers, intended specifically for people like you to see.
This is an information game, playing out against the backdrop of Russia recently beginning to test captured Western weaponry. The underlying premise is that the West will eventually come to its senses, because things have already gone much too far. Those drone incursions deep into Russian territory pose a genuine threat to Russia—a real threat, regardless of what is happening on the front lines. Ukraine is already capable of launching a thousand drones a day... and that number is only going to rise.
We'll have to see what happens in the next three month when the real energy shortages hit https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/oil-market-clock-is-ticking-supply-crunch-looms-2026-05-21/
I still think this will be the big deciding factor. Europe can talk a big talk, but people have to eat. As Lenin put it, every society is three meals away from chaos. You saw how even Kid Starver tried to roll back sanctions on Russian energy, that tells you all you need to know about how bad the situation is.