this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2026
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I'm confident enough about this that I've registered a prediction on Long Bets.
"No LLM-based AI will surpass 70% on the ARC-AGI-3 leaderboard, with a cost of $1000 or less, before June 2028." - https://longbets.org/973/
I'm curious if you'd really disagree with the premise, and would you (or anyone here on Lemmy) be willing to put money down to challenge the bet? (Long Bets always donates any winnings to a registered non-profit of the winner's choice, though it's a $200 minimum).
Are you saying that LLMs can currently reason? How do you explain their low score on ARC-AGI-3? Do you think Transformer LLM architectures will be capable of reasoning within the next two years without some new breakthrough? What mechanism in the architecture allows them to reason?