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Battery prices are forecast to fall 40% by 2025, and by 13% every year until 2030.
(www.goldmansachs.com)
this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2023
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Will anyone be left buying new internal combustion engine cars by the end of the decade?
I look at the car market like this: imagine you're a bright young thing, just graduating car engineering university and setting off for the bright lights of car maker boulevard.
You get 2 job offers, one is to work on cars which most governments around the world are going to ban from sale in 7-12 years time, which is about one fifth of your career. The other offer is to work on the cars which will take over from those.
Which job do you take?
Sure, the internal combustion cars will get people working on them, but not the best people, they will go elsewhere.
Most likely, but only because there’s large swaths of America and Canada that have no charging infrastructure and get very cold. Those two things are still weak points of battery tech that will have to be over come by capacity and physical traits. We’re getting there, but I wouldn’t bet on EVs taking over by the end of the decade. Most likely mid to late 2030s is when we’ll see larger groups of electric tractor trailers and that’s when we’ll see mass adoption.
The charging infrastructure could catch up pretty quickly. It's just a matter of getting the transition rolling.
As for cold weather, it sounds like it can be worked around if there's enough charging points - and I live in the coldest populated area of the continent.
I wonder if even then hybrid might become dominant.
They’re mostly diesels which aren’t really good at the whole hybrid thing except when running as full electric generators like trains do. Theirs trad-offs with that setup style though. Personally I’m rooting for Hydrogen power. People are against it right now due to most of hydrogens sourcing being from fossil fuels, but it can be created with renewable energy, and more importantly gives us engine research for vehicles that could go off planet too. So I see it as a better investment for humanity long term.
Hybrids should have been a thing back in the early 2000 and by 2010 we should have had a ton of Chevy Volt style PHEVs. It’s amazing we never did that correctly.
mostly diesel? Are talking the same thing? Im talking like the prius. I was thinking about it though and far enough north im surprised electric would not catch on. Like deluth where folks have extension cords going anyway to their cars to run heaters on the engine block so they will start. could just as easy trickle charge overnight.
Some dudes will just out of spite, probably. Besides that, people in remote areas. There might be minor niche uses too, but for most people it's great.
Yes. There will always be the deplorables.