"The economics are likely to be grim," Marcus wrote on his Substack. "Sky high valuation of companies like OpenAI and Microsoft are largely based on the notion that LLMs will, with continued scaling, become artificial general intelligence."
"As I have always warned," he added, "that's just a fantasy."
this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2024
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Microsoft shit is a mega corp... AI is based on their revenue lol
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I'm shocked I tell you
is this where we get to explain again why its not really ai?
Nope, just where you divest your stocks like any other tech run.
I have to do similar things when it comes to 'raytracing'. It meant one thing, and then a company comes along and calls something sorta similar the same thing, then everyone has these ideas of what it should be vs. what it actually is doing. Then later, a better version comes out that nearly matches the original term, but there's already a negative hype because it launched half baked and misnamed. Now they have to name the original thing something new new to market it because they destroyed the original name with a bad label and half baked product.
He is writing about LLM mainly, and that is absolutely AI, it's just not strong AI or general AI (AGI).
You can't invent your own meaning for existing established terms.
LLMs are AI in the same way that the lane assist on my car is AI. Tech companies, however, very carefully and deliberately play up LLMs as being AGI or close to it. See for example toe convenient fear-mongering over the "risks" of AI, as though ChatGPT will become Skynet.
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Because nobody could have possibly saw that coming. /s
Apparently, there was only so much IP to steal
Great!! ....I don't what chatGPT to go anywhere, I use it every day and Google has become assss.
The tech priests of Mars were right; death to abominable intelligence.
That's a Space Grudgin'
It'll implode but there are much larger elephants in the room - geopolitical dumbassery and the suddenly transient nature of the CHIPS Act are two biggies.
Third, high flying growth, blue sky darlings, they're flaky. In a downturn growth is worth 0 fucking dollars, throw that shit in a dumpster and rotate into staples. People can push off a phone upgrade or new TV and cut down on subscriptions, but they'll always need Pampers.
The thing propping up AI and semis is an arms race between those high flying tech companies, so this whole thing is even more prone to imploding than tech itself, since a ton of revenue comes from tech. Sensitive sector supported by an already sensitive sector. House of cards with NVDA sitting right at the tippy top. Apple, Facebook, those kinds of companies, when they start trimming back it's over.
But, it's one of those things that is anyone's guess. When you think it's not even possible for everything to still have steam one of the big guys like TSMC posts some really delightful earnings and it gets another second wind, for the 29th time.
Definitely a house of cards tho, and suddenly a lot more precarious because suddenly nobody knows how policy will affect the industry or the market as a whole
They say shipping is the bellwhether of the economy and there's a lot of truth to that. I think semis are now the bellwhether of growth. Sit back and watch the change in the wind
nvidia at least sells shovels, they already made some real profit unlike openai
True, but it's not a competition. When big tech tightens their belts NVDA starves to death
Edit: guess I forgot to point out the hyperbole. Nvidia obviously won't literally die
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Seems to me the rationale is flawed. Even if it isn't strong or general AI, LLM based AI has found a lot of uses. I also don't recognize the claimed ignorance among people working with it, about the limitations of current AI models.
Can you name some of those uses that you see lasting in the long term or even the medium term? Because while it has been used for a lot of things it seems to be pretty bad at the overwhelming majority of them.
AI is already VERY successful in some areas, when you take a photo, it is treated with AI features to improve the image, and when editing photos on your phone, the more sophisticated options are powered by AI. Almost all new cars have AI features.
These are practical everyday uses, you don't even have to think about when using them.
But it's completely irrelevant if I can see use cases that are sustainable or not. The fact is that major tech companies are investing billions in this.
Of course all the biggest tech companies could all be wrong, but I bet they researched the issue more than me before investing.
Show me by what logic you believe to know better.
The claim that it needs to be strong AI to be useful is ridiculous.
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while you may be right, one would think that the problem lies in the overestimated peception of the abilities of llms leading to misplaced investor confidence -- which in turn leads to a bubble ready to burst.
Yup. Investors have convinced themselves that this time AI development is going to grow exponentially. The breathless fantasies they’ve concocted for themselves require it. They’re going to be disappointed.
supermicro's accountants have just resigned 🤭
Just put another number behind it. Luddites won't know the difference.
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yep Knew ai should die some day.
It's gonna crash like a self driving tesla. It's gonna fall apart like a cybertrukkk.