Here are my West Standings predictions with ceilings (C) and floors (F). Most of this was written before pre-season and even the other ones I tried not to let the preseason affect my opinion too much. I also put my breakout candidates and league-wide awards at the end (with 2 picks for each award because I'm a cheater). Will do the East standings in the next 2-3 days if anyone cares.
1. Nuggets [54 - Ceiling: 58, Floor: 50]
It’s the Nuggets. Reigning champs, best player in the world, etc. Sure they lost Bruce Brown and that might hurt them a little (probably more in the playoffs), but Jamal Murray was coming off an injury last season and was rusty. I expect him to be a lot better this regular season, so the Nuggets are an easy #1 pick for me.
2. Lakers [52 - C: 55, F: 43] Lakers were great after the trade deadline last year. I think Rui and Vanderbilt will be better this year, I think LeBron and AD will both be extra motivated this year (although that doesn’t matter nearly as much as them needing to be healthy), and I really liked the Gabe Vincent pickup, even though Miami role players often underwhelm after leaving Miami. I can see them getting the #2 seed if things click.
3. Suns [50 - C:53, F:47] Suns’ depth is bad. It’ll hurt them in the regular season. This is why I didn’t hate the trade as much as most people (I also think very lowly of Ayton), because now at least they have a few playable players. Also, I’m a Portland fan so I am biased but I think this will finally be the year Nas Little puts it together (although preseason has not been good at all). Nurk, if he even stays healthy, is very volatile though, and if they don’t have someone that’s good at managing his emotions, there could be issues. But if he’s locked in, I think he’ll be good for the Suns, he fits very well. And as their backup, I like Drewbanks a lot too. But even still, there’s not a lot of guys you can consistently rely on. I’m a little low on the Suns relative to most others because of depth and because its 3 guys who are all primarily scorers. Also KD is fairly injury prone these days, so I’m expecting him to miss a handful of games.
4. Grizzlies [49 - C: 53, F: 44] Grizzlies are really tough for me to rank. No Ja for 25 games (so they’ll be really good in that time /s), and idk how i feel about Smart being the lead ballhandler/playmaker. But they have a lot of good players, and a proven record of regular season success, so its tough to count them out.
5. Clippers [46 - C: 50, F: 41] Every year I think Clippers are going to be contenders and they end up getting decimated by injuries. I’m gonna factor that in this time, and I also think their roster has stagnated and they don’t have many guys who are expected to improve a lot. If they trade for Harden or Brogdon, it could help them a lot, but i think their regular season will likely still be limited.
6. Kings [46 - C: 52, F: 41] I hope the Kings do well. But I’ve always thought Sabonis was just a good center, not a great one. He had a great regular season last year, but the playoffs were meh for him. I hope him and Fox maintain/improve their production, but I’m a little hesitant right now. I also like Keegan Murray a lot and I think he’ll take a decently-sized jump. Also hoping Mitchell improves as well. I can see the Kings repeating their success last year, but I can also see them cooling down a fair bit. One of the teams I’m most unsure about, hence the wide range between ceiling and floor
7. Thunder [46 - C: 51, F: 41] I’ve been a HUGE SGA believer since his rookie season (and before tbh). He’s already in the convo for top 10, and i think he’ll make another jump to solidify himself in that top 10 and maybe even top 5. I also like a lot of their other guys, who im expecting to improve even more, like Dort, Giddey, Jaylin Williams (hope i spelled the right one). Plus they’re getting Chet now too. I don’t think this is a hot take at all, but this team can make a lot of noise. Wouldn’t surprise me if they’re a top 4 seed, 4-8 are very close for me
8. Warriors [45 - C: 51, F: 41] Again, 4-8 seeds are very close for me, basically interchangeable. I think Steph, Dray, Klay, CP3, Wiggins, and Kuminga are a great top 6 (and 7 with Looney). But I think their age might limit their regular season success a little, so between the 5 teams in this range, I’m putting them at the end, but really i’m splitting hairs. Warriors will be a good team, and a contender.
9. Wolves [40 - C: 45, F: 36] I’ve been high on Edwards since day 1 and i think he’ll make a big jump this year. Unfortunately though, KAT is not it, and playing KAT and Gobert together is not it. They have a couple guys who I think are okay (Conley, Kyle Anderson), but their guard/wing depth is weak, and Naz Reid is a great big, but will be stuck behind KAT/Rudy. ultimately i think KAT is too big of a hindrance for this team to succeed.
10. Mavs [39 C: 43, F: 36] Their roster outside of Luka and Kyrie is BAD. Like are there even any playoff-starter caliber players? I do like Grant Williams, Jaden Hardy, and Josh Green, but I don’t know if they’re enough to help Luka and Kyrie make the playoffs. Also, is there even one plus defender on the team?
11. Spurs [37 - C: 45, F: 31] I’m shocked at how many people have the Spurs as a 13th-15th seed. I am very high on them, and i think even 11th is underestimating them. Their top 5 guys are really good. Wemby, Vassell, Keldon, Zach Collins, Sochan, Tre Jones. Zach Collins is going to have a breakout season, and to a lesser extent, Sochan and Vassell too. Tre Jones and Malaki Branham are decent too. And with Pop coaching them, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they’re in the play-ins/playoffs.
12. Pels [35 - C: 43, F:28] Yeah, yeah, Pels were the #1 seed before Zion got hurt. But do we trust Zion to have a healthy season? And I feel like CJ/Jonas are going to regress, and while i do like a lot of their young guys (Herb, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy, Dyson Daniels), I’m not sure if they’re ready to make a jump this season. Might take another year. And honestly, the vibes seem off. I just don’t think they have a lot going for them unless Zion and BI are both healthy all season, which historically is very unlikely. And honestly, if they do get hurt, i can see things getting very very bad, very very fast. Their floor may very well be like a 14th seed.
13. Jazz [33 - C: 40, F: 27] I’ve been high on Lauri since his rookie year, so I was really happy to see him break out last season. But I don’t really like the rest of the team much. Not a big John Collins fan, not a big Sexton fan, Clarkson is just okay. It’s just Lauri and Walker Kessler that I think are impactful players. There’s a lot of average players though, which can be good so i can see them a little higher than this, but the West is so deep that I don’t think its enough.
14. Blazers [30 - C:37, F: 22] I actually do like our team and think they can do well if they try. Obviously people are talking about Scoot, but Sharpe can make a jump and Grant/Ant are already good players. I’m very very low on Ayton but since he’ll only be playing meaningless games, he might actually do okay. Also Rob Will III will have a big impact, as will Brogdon until he’s traded. I think by the trade deadline, we might be around a 10 seed but we’ll drop soon after once Brogdon is traded and if we shut down players again to tank. I’m also really excited about Jabari Walker and Toumani Camara
15. Rockets [29 - C:35. F: 26]
This might be a hot take, but i don’t like pretty much any of their young guys except Sengun and maybe Jalen Green, so i’m not expecting them to be too much better than last year. I also thought the FVV pickup was weird, he didn’t get along well with the young guys in Toronto, and he plays very selfishly, and has fell off hard on both sides of the court. The rockets just have a bunch of score-first guards, plus Jabari (who i’m meh on) and Sengun.
West Breakout Season Candidates
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Zach Collins - I think he's going to have a great season. He's a great fit next to Wemby, already was really good last year especially after Poeltl was traded. I think he'll be even better and have a huge impact even beyond his stats, but for his stats, I predict 18/7/4.5/1/1 on 48/38/82 splits
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Anthony Edwards - not sure if this counts as a breakout since he's already great, but I think he takes another jump and gets 2nd team all-NBA
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Rui Hachimura - I was big on him pre-draft, and he was good with the Lakers. I think he'll make another jump and maybe not have the best stats but a huge impact on a very good Lakers team. Maybe like 14ppg on 50/34/75 splits.
League-wide Awards
Picking two players because awards are hard to predict lol
MVP: Tatum or Jokic
DPOY: AD or Giannis
6MOY: GTJ or Grayson Allen
ROY: Wemby (duh) or Scoot (Sorry Chet)
MIP: Mobley or Zach Collins (or Edwards, but he might be considered too good already)