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Player Projections for 2023-24 are now up on Basketball Reference! (alien.top)

submitted 1 year ago by Basketball_Reference@alien.top to c/nba@nba.space

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Here's a sortable table where you can find Per 36 Minute projections for a multitude of counting and efficiency stats: https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/projections.cgi

You can also find a player's projections near the top of their player page, if you prefer that. (Example)

If you're curious, you can find an explanation of the Simple Projection System that is used. It is very similar to baseball's Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System.

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[–] A2Eaton@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I too think Giannis Dame and Khris will average 83 PPG. Thank you bbref. Very cool.

[–] Basketball_Reference@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Our pleasure!

[–] Juniper41@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

fwiw it is per36 estimates.

Giannis has averaged 30-32 mpg each of the last 5 seasons, Dame is 33 years old and will likely only play 31-32 mpg, Middleton is coming off injuries and has averaged ~30 mpg over his last 4 seasons.

Assuming all three play 30-32 mpg (age, injury recovery and Milwaukee likely wins a lot of games and thus they don't need to play these three 40+ mpg), their per game averages (using these per36 averages as a starting point that then gets scaled down to ~31 mpg) would be around:

Giannis: ~28.3 ppg
Lillard: ~25.05 ppg
Middleton: ~18.6 ppg

That is totally reasonable, maybe a tad high. I personally imagine Giannis around 27, Lillard around 24 and Middleton at 16-17.

[–] floatersforalgernon@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Curious that their model lists Jokic at 15th in Points per 36 behind Zion, LeBron, Ja, etc.