this post was submitted on 27 Oct 2023
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[4th Down Decision Calculator] - Tampa Bay, down 7, 4th & 3, 43 yards from Buffalo end zone, Qtr 2, 00:19; Timeouts: Off 0, Def 2 - GO FOR IT (+ 0.7% WP) (alien.top)
submitted 1 year ago by SeattleSealions@alien.top to c/nfl@nfl.community
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47% chance of a successful 4th down conversion. 33% chance of a successful FG.

  • If FG is successful: 12% chance to win

  • If FG fails: 6% chance to win

  • If conversion is successful: 12% chance to win.

  • If conversion fails: 7% chance to win.

Actual decision made - take a delay of game penalty and then punt.

Todd Boyles is just consistently making the mathematically incorrect decisions tonight.

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