There is a downfall of big tech? Aside from Musk putting Twitter into the dumpster I haven't noticed anything like that.
Privacy
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I think here might biased to think so, because many are people that have flex from other social media sites. Like I'm full time Lemmy now after years of Reddit because of the API change.
What we need now is to normalize XMPP, force apps such as Whatsapp, Telegram and others to be fully interoperable with each other by using XMPP as a truly open standard for messaging and video.
I'd hope so, but I don't see numbers dropping on facebook. I'm not sure if you can cite those links but I can't find anything reliable.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/
For the most part, it should be. Will it? Time will tell. A lot of people are actively hostile to the idea of federation, even on lemmy. It's very "complicated" for a lot of non-techy people to grapple with, but unfortunately as more and more centralized platforms implode its just going to have to become a new normal out of necessity regardless.
I wouldn't call going from mad profits to okay profits a sign of downfall. Having decentralized technology doesn't mean decentralization will actually happen. For instance look at E-mail. It is technically a decentralized service, but most people still uses services provided by big tech vs operating their own servers. Such a system does give you more choices, but don't expect this future will be without big tech.
You might consider that social media is an aberration. We have decades of forums, newsgroups, and such--those still exist. I see federation/decentralization as a middle space between the two models.