Anyone have any thoughts?
The U.S. focus on Venezuela is real and structural, but it is not about “stealing cheap gas.”[1][2][3]
Energy and refineries
- U.S. oil is mostly light crude, while many Gulf Coast refineries were built to run heavy, sulfurous crude.[4][1]
- Venezuela has large heavy oil reserves, so its barrels are valuable to U.S. refiners trying to optimize diesel and jet fuel output and margins, especially as other heavy suppliers (like some Russian and Mexican grades) are constrained.[5][1][4]
Migration pressure
- Venezuela’s collapse has pushed roughly 7.7–7.9 million people to leave the country, making it one of the world’s largest displacement crises.[2][3][6]
- U.S. policymakers see any economic and political stabilization in Venezuela as part of a “root cause” approach to reducing migration pressure on the southern border, even as sanctions themselves can worsen the crisis.[3][2]
Crime and state–cartel links
- U.S. indictments and reporting describe elements of the Venezuelan state and military as involved in cocaine trafficking (“Cartel of the Suns”).[3]
- Venezuelan-origin gangs like Tren de Aragua have spread across South America, tied to extortion and human trafficking, which raises regional and, increasingly, U.S. security concerns.[3]
Great powers and the neighborhood
- Russia has used Venezuela as a platform for military cooperation and bomber deployments, Iran for sanctions-busting and strategic presence, and China as a major creditor and investor in oil and infrastructure.[3]
- U.S. strategists worry about these actors gaining leverage in what Washington still treats as its near abroad.[3]
Guyana and Essequibo
- Venezuela’s claim to Guyana’s oil-rich Essequibo region, including a 2023 referendum, raised the risk of conflict in a zone where ExxonMobil and others operate.[7][8]
- The U.S. responded with visible military cooperation with Guyana, signaling that aggression there would hit both U.S. commercial interests and regional stability.[9][7]
In short, Venezuela matters to Washington because of refinery economics, migration and crime, great-power competition, and a live border flashpoint with Guyana—not because the U.S. lacks oil.[8][1][2][9][3]
