Stackoverflow (not quite a huge tech company) is edging.
this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2023
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Discord might be it but not for a while. Right now they're one of the places people are flocking thanks to their forum channels.
It's hard to predict - because despite the bad decisions from platforms like Facebook, Twitch, and Reddit, they are still always going to be immensely more popular than Fediverse / FOSS equivalents due to the network effect.
Despite all the bad moves from YouTube, Twitch, and Reddit, the vast majority of people aren't interested in another platform, they just want the current platform to not be rubbish, so they don't lose their current communities and contacts.
While I'd like for all the Fediverse platforms to become relatively "mainstream" that people will sign up for them, I don't think it's ever going to happen any time soon, but I'd love to be proven wrong.
Absolutely right. What makes or breaks any social media platform is the ease of forming large communities (which goes hand in hand with the number of total active users) first and the user experience second.
"Fediverse" seems to suffer greatly from a UX point of view, mostly due to decentralization, which creates this isolation effect for newcomers.
Take mastodon vs twitter for example. For someone used to signing up for twitter and instantly gaining access to virtually everything the platform has to offer, mastodon has a big threshold to jump over before you can have a twitter-like experience. At least it feels like it until you get used to the experience. That's still the biggest barrier in front of large scale adoption of decentralized social media platforms.
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I think it would take a while for any social media to have one, then again I didn't expect Reddit to shit the bed the way it has. If there's any that I think will be specifically fast, it would be Twitch.
Youtube is the least likely, no matter how many times it shits the bed, people stick to it because all the other video sharing services simply aren't supported by the big content creators.
i would never watch youtube if i cannot use newpipe : as soon as youtube blocks newpipe, exodus to peertube may happen
as soon as youtube blocks newpipe, exodus to peertube may happen
I'm willing to bet that the percentage of people watching Youtube via Newpipe is at least an order of magnitude smaller than of people browsing reddit through third party clients.
With people learning about Fediverse, I'm guessing Instagram. Why? Because IG has become overwhelmed with influencers and TikTok-like junk. The initial wave of people into Pixelfed will be techies that want a break from that scene. Their friends will hear about it. The friends that just want to have an IG-like experience to share their pictures with friends while avoiding all the rest of the noise will slowly transfer over. Once they hit the critical mass, the switch will happen. This will take at least another year or two.
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